My first post and I'm calling it for Aquaman in a close endurance fest.
Points of interest to me:
Iron Spider armor is at least 1/3 to 1/4 the thickness of the Bleeding Edge armor so it is not going to absorb anywhere near the same force. I could go on a long thing about armor that may or may not be relatively correct, but I do support the notion that it is in the realm of the Bleeding Edge when coupled with Peter's natural ability to absorb impacts as evidenced in Infinity War. It is, however, armor and will mitigate pain which Peter seems to feel more substantively than Aquaman. The armor will fail eventually I believe, but that will be towards the end of a longer fight.
Aquaman is more naturally durable. We can focus all day on taking punches from whom, but the man fell hundreds of feet riding a parademon like a surfboard into a brick apartment building and walked away like he was just plain excited. He also wasn't concerned at all about falling further at any point despite not knowing what he would land on. This may have been reckless, but it also shows an awareness of what he can take combined with an overall ability to react to his surroundings in a defensive manner.
Both characters are immensely strong with very hard to gauge overall capacities due to hollywood's general inaccuracy. Aquaman's feat with the building shows greater strength in a situation that can be compared to that of Spider-man who has a lot of experience with collapsing buildings. Aquaman not only endures the forces of such impacts, but shrugs them off and maintains better composure. Peter's striking capacity inside a hardened Iron-Spider gauntlet may be enough to rock Aquaman, but in overall applications of strength Aquaman seems superior. This will translate especially well to any grappling scenario which will likely result out of necessity to slow Peter down on Aquaman's part.
In regards to speed and perception... Film-makers cannot and will not film in constant VFX super speed shots. It's both prohibitively expensive and would ruin the movies tempo. Aquaman is shown to hand with speedsters repeatedly and consistently. He shows quick reactions to numerous situations in a manner at least close to on the level of Peter, if not quite reaching it due to the lack of intuition provided by the spidey-sense. In other words anything happening within his sight is likely fair game for him to react to. Peter's advantage is going to be in being able to control the tempo of the fight and react to unseen actions by Arthur. In other words Peter is going to avoid taking follow up hits when he gets rocked or is otherwise mildly incapacitated (during/after being thrown and manhandled, face shoved into a wall etc). This is one of the main reasons he can hang with someone who is stronger and more innately durable. Even when he doesn't avoid taking hits he will mitigate them better and make full use of that armor.
Webbing is more useful defensively than offensively as Peter has shown a penchant for using it to mitigate impacts and conduct surprise attacks. The bridge/cityscape comes into play here.
Neither character is likely to do what would end the fight quickly by impaling the other, with the trident for Arthur, or the Iron-Spider legs for Peter. While Peter is technically the better fighter in terms of striking above his weight and tactic; Arthur is too hardened and stalwart for him overall. I see Peter impressing Arthur early on but unable to put him down in most instances before Arthur can cope.
Note: I'd pay to see this fight. It would be a good one. Although Peter shows greater adaptability (it is a hallmark of the character); Arthur shows some interestingly abnormal disregard for certain potential harms and proves un-phased by a number of situations. The plucky geek from Queens does have a good shot at a heavy hitter in that armor.
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