One can make a far stronger case for Atlantis invading Wakanda successfully than the reverse, that is for sure. As a land locked nation Wakanda likely doesn't even have a naval force to speak of and their airships didn't display an ability to move through the water. Aquaman could literally solo the Wakandan army if they tried to dive by sending massive armies of sharks and prehistoric aquatic reptiles. He doesn't even need to meet them with his actual army.
As far as Atlantis' invasion goes, they can outfit their infantry with Atlantean power armor to go on land far more successfully than the Wakandans can go underwater. Their infantry has massively superior stats to the Wakandans, especially the Brine. They have vastly superior ranged weaponry and their entire army utilizes modern warfare tactics, so they'd dominate any field engagement.
The Wakandans' only advantage is their shield, but I am not convinced it would stand against a long bombardment by Atlantean plasma weaponry. It seems to have a hard time holding back large numbers concentrated on a single point, and Atlantis has pretty significant numbers to throw at it. If they really need to the Trench can replicate the Outriders' strategy.
Not to mention that I don't think the shield covers their entire country, just their capital city. Correct me if I am wrong. If that is true though, Atlantis can just hold Wakanda's capital under siege until they starve to death. Cities don't tend to be self sustaining in terms of food.
And of course, since Wakanda is bringing in their super shield, Arthur can ride in on the Karathen and breach Wakanda from below. That thing was tanking the concentrated fire of the entire Atlantean military for a prolonged period of time without sustaining any damage. Wakanda can't hurt it. There is a good chance it could solo, though I don't think Atlantis would need to resort to it.
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