Setting Expectations for the Second Wave

If you've read any of my previous blog posts, you've probably discerned by now that I am a bit of a data driven creature. As such, I wanted to begin setting my expectations for the Second Wave of the New 52 titles. Where these titles will actually fall is a bit of a game of luck... but I wanted to establish some wide parameters for analysis, to check how these titles will compare to other current titles as well as to the initial launch of the New 52. To do this, my first step was to find the average sales amount of each of the New 52 groups, throughout issues #1 to #7. This includes every copy indicated on sales charts, including combo packs and reorders. The first numbered column indicates the group average including the cancelled, the second indicates the average with those titles removed.

Pre-Cancel AveragePost Cancel Average
Superman Group74541.4285774541.42857
Green Lantern Group72339.7142972339.71429
Justice League Group59086.1142963246.19048
Batman Group48791.8701348791.87013
Young Justice Group31460.1666736342.39286
The Dark Group35012.2653135012.26531
The Edge Group26742.9523830180.54762
DC Universe Presents27127.5714327127.57143
So now...
Once we've done this... I used these figures as the range for the titles in their respective groups... included are their groups, and the range that they would need to meet...
Earth 2Justice League Group5908663246
World's FinestJustice League Group5908663246
Batman, Inc.Batman Group4879148791
Dial HThe Dark Group3501236342
The RavagersYoung Justice Group3146035012
GI CombatThe Edge Group2674230180

So if these titles hit within these ranges, they will be either raising or maintaining the levels of their various groups... for my purposes, to be within this general range (take a thousand units or so) would be to meet the established standard. If sales are above those marks, they would be regarded as exceeding the established expectations. Most likely that'll be pretty feasible for the two Justice League titles: JLI and JLD managed to beat those levels in their first month's sales, even without reorders. Similarly, Batman Inc. last sold at about 56K, and in the relaunch the given range was about where Superboy was falling. The other titles might have a tougher time. Ravagers probably has the best luck, spinning out of the Culling event. Dial H is one I'm incredibly hopeful will meet that level, especially to indicate that readers are digging the Dark titles... GI Combat has the biggest challenge as its debut number pretty much would have to match Men of War's debut to achieve the aim.

Now, that isn't the end game... we also need to compare the titles to the ones they're replacing... anything above these levels would be of moderate quality, basically approaching the established standard... not panic news, but not celebration either. Included below are the data points for the cancelled titles:

#7 SalesAverageAssumed Replacement
Hawk and Dove1273123108.57143Earth 2
Mister Terrific1062021645.42857World's Finest
Omac1180720964.42857Batman, Inc.
Static Shock1056520282.85714Dial H
Blackhawks960119829.85714The Ravagers
Men of War968218809GI Combat

The assumed replacement is basically the loose guess based on the above charts of which will be the highest sellers (personally I think Batman Inc will be the highest, but I'm going with group averages for now). If the title achieves the same or above the average levels of their predecessor, I would mark them as a moderate success, a 3 stars out of 5 kind of victory. Ranging between #7 to average would be a 2 stars or okay ranking. Ranking below the #7 sales of the predecessor title would be a decisive failure.

Naturally these levels will adjust after the first issue sales... for the most part, the method of ranking will remain the same, only I will begin to compare the average of the new title to the average of the old... so good luck to the Second Wave... I know I'll be buying... let us hope that the retailers will be doing so as well!

Start the Conversation