Jojo Rabbit is my personal favorite movie of the year so I believe it should be that one. Incredible acting from everybody, absolutely hilarious but knows when to be serious. And when it is serious, it is very serious. Treats its messages with extreme care. Has a "feel good" ending that the Academy usually likes. And after watching Ragnarok, I did not know that Waititi had the capability to make me so emotionally wrapped up in a story. Loved Ragnarok but more as a "fun" adventure movie, not emotional one. I would say it is too controversial to win, but Green Book won last year so anything is possible. I don't think it will win though, if any "controversial" movie is going to win, it will probably be Joker.
For order of most likely to win to least, i'd say it goes OUATIH, The Irishman, 1917, Parasite, Joker, Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women and then Ford v Ferrari.
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