The Box Office Thread

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Asgaard

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#2  Edited By Asgaard

April 22-24, 2016 Domestic Weekend Estimates

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count /ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
11The Jungle Book (2016)BV$60,803,000-41.1%4,028-$15,095$191,477,426$1752
2NThe Huntsman: Winter's WarUni.$20,080,000-3,791-$5,297$20,080,000$1151
32Barbershop: The Next CutWB$10,830,000-46.5%2,676+15$4,047$36,031,492-2
45ZootopiaBV$6,611,000-18.8%2,798-411$2,363$316,435,606-8
53The BossUni.$6,080,000-38.9%3,375-120$1,801$49,508,205$293
64Batman v Superman: Dawn of JusticeWB$5,520,000-38.9%3,066-439$1,800$319,501,603$2505
76Criminal (2016)LG/S$3,100,000-46.2%2,683-$1,155$10,864,486-2
87My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2Uni.$2,100,000-35.6%1,749-548$1,201$55,374,740-5
9NCompadresPNT$1,350,000-368-$3,668$1,350,000-1
1010Eye in the SkyBST$1,214,963-21.8%838-53$1,450$14,967,114-7

April 22-24, 2016 International Weekend Estimates

THE JUNGLE BOOK

In 53 territories which rep about 91% of the international marketplace, The Jungle Book grossed $96M this weekend. Its biggest offshore play isChina at $97.4M to date, followed by the UK ($30.3M), India ($28.2M),Russia ($17.5M) and Mexico($15.6M). The film earlier this week became the biggest Hollywood release ever in India where the market tends to hew closely to homegrown films.

Holds were strong across the board with Latin America dropping just 22%, Europe 25% and Asia-Pacific 40%. In Latin America, Brazil notably jumped by 20% ($7M cume) while Mexico saw only a 20% drop.

In Europe, there were No. 1s in all key markets for a $105M cume across the region. That bests the entire run of Oz: The Great And Powerful and is significantly ahead ofMaleficent on a like-for-like basis. The UK was tops in the frame with $10.9M. Other stand-outs include Switzerland (-3%), Austria (-4%) and The Netherlands (-7%).

In Asia, China will cross $100M this week. India shot up to No. 1 this frame where there is competition from local titles. Australia, which is still enjoying school vacations, dipped just 8% to take the No. 1 spot for the third consecutive weekend ($14.9M cume). New Zealand was a new opener with an estimated $1.2M, more than twice Maleficent’s 2015 bow.

In IMAX plays, TJB has a global cume of $39M. Overseas, 484 IMAX screens posted a $6.3M weekend for an international total of $20.6M. Korea and Japan are still to release.

THE HUNTSMAN: WINTER’S WAR

Universal’s sequel to Snow White And The Huntsman scored its biggest offshore haul this weekend in the 3rd frame with $32.1M. That takes the offshore cume to $80.2M in a total of 64 territories, including China which saw a No. 3 bow of $11.1M at 5,932 dates. The first of Uni’s titles under a $500M deal with Chinese co-financier Perfect World Pictures had to contend with The Jungle Book‘s 2nd frame in the Middle Kingdom as well as the debut of local melodramaYesterday Once More which took an estimated $15M. The film had a decent start inBrazil with $3.4M at 500 dates. It was No. 1 on Saturday, but will land at No. 2 for the weekend. France also opened at No. 2 with $2.5M at 520 dates. There were No. 1s in Bulgaria, Peru, Portugal and Turkey.

The global total is now $100.3M ahead of the start of Captain America: Civil War in offshore markets this Wednesday which will put a further freeze on the reportedly $115M budget pic. Audiences haven’t warmed to Winter’s War despite the $240M international gross of the previous film which was partly propelled by the presence of Kristen Stewart. There are three more territories to open: Greece on April 28, Panama on May 5 and Japan on May 27.

ZOOTOPIA

Zootopia this frame crossed the $900M worldwide mark with $907.14M. It’s also approaching $600M international with $590.7M to date. Out of a $10.8Minternational weekend, Japancontributed $4M in its debut. This isZootopia’s final market and has been considered something of a wild card. The opening makes it the No. 1 western movie for the weekend and is the 3rd biggest start for a Disney Studios Animation release, behind Frozen and Big Hero 6. A factor to recall here is that the country is recovering from some major earthquakes which have affected the southern regions. Japan can be a high-multiple market so ifZootopia follows the path of some previous films, it has a chance to grow momentum. It’s currently in its 11th weekend of offshore release and playing in 41 territories while the run starts to taper. Still, in France, it has become the top grosser of 2016 with $31.1M at the box office. Both Korea ($29.4M cume) and Australia ($20M) have continued apace with respective drops of 9% and 11% this weekend. The China run is now complete with a staggering $234.4M.

BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE

Adding $8.3M from about 6,500 screens in 66 markets, Warner Bros’ DC face-off has grossed $532.1M to date internationally and $851.6M global. While the superheroes have folded up their capes in China ($95M cume), they continue to spar in Brazil with a further $2.2M this frame and a $34.7M total. In that market, BvS has become the 4th biggest industry release ever, toppingMinions this frame. All markets have been released and play will peter out now that Marvel’s Captain America is about to rocket off this week. Top 5 cumes outside China and Brazil are the UK with $51.6M, Mexico at $35.7M and Australia’s $22.2M.

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My BvS butthurt fanboy senses are tingling.

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mickey-mouse

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Wow...I wonder if Zootpia could make 1 billion...it would be another Disney megahit...

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Petey_is_Spidey

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I remember back in 2011 when DotM was just released, it was the 3rd highest grossing film ever, and by the end of the year moved to 4th due to Harry Potter. Now it's 12, which is still pretty good.

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Thorthunder98

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Wonder if The Jungle Book will catch up to BvS, Jungle Book was amazing and just so much better than BvS to me it deserves to make a lot.

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Asgaard

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My BvS butthurt fanboy senses are tingling.

The movie will still make a lot of money in Stream, Tv, Director's Cut and Merchandise... But Theatrically is not healthy for any franchise to make around $200M less than the last Batman solo movie (TDKR $1,084M)...

@lukehero said:

Wow...I wonder if Zootpia could make 1 billion...it would be another Disney megahit...

The animation legs normally are very strong and only was released in Japan yesterday, a market where 2013 Frozen made $250M...

I remember back in 2011 when DotM was just released, it was the 3rd highest grossing film ever, and by the end of the year moved to 4th due to Harry Potter. Now it's 12, which is still pretty good.

New markets like China boost a lot big blockbusters in the current days... Furious 7 = $400M in China

Wonder if The Jungle Book will catch up to BvS, Jungle Book was amazing and just so much better than BvS to me it deserves to make a lot.

TJB still looks really strong, i think has chances to make $1B worldwide, in fact Disney can end 2016 with 5 $1B plus movies... (Zootopia, Jungle Book, Civil War, Finding Dory, Rogue One) something that never happened before...

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Petey_is_Spidey

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@asgaard: Even though I liked the first two TF movies, I think next year is the year that the public will give up the franchise, unless the quality of the movie improves.

Of course, I could be wrong.

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@lukehero said:

Wow...I wonder if Zootpia could make 1 billion...it would be another Disney megahit...

Highly doubt it. It'll get close though.

@asgaard: Even though I liked the first two TF movies, I think next year is the year that the public will give up the franchise, unless the quality of the movie improves.

Of course, I could be wrong.

If you mean the Fast and Furious movies, those movies are awful. It's a shame, IMO, that Furious 7 grossed a billion.

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erikarlsson

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@asgaard: Shouldn't you make one adjusted for inflation?

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darkdetective27

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@asgaard: I know BvS is doing terribly. My comment was regarding how the thread was going to be full of butthurt BvS fanboys real soon as they try to defend the massive disappointment that is BvS. That movie is sinking faster than the Titanic not the movie of course.

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Petey_is_Spidey

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@saint_samantha: Only made that much because of Paul Walker. That's it. Next won't make nearly as much.

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Asgaard

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#13  Edited By Asgaard

@petey_is_spidey said:

@asgaard: Even though I liked the first two TF movies, I think next year is the year that the public will give up the franchise, unless the quality of the movie improves.

Of course, I could be wrong.

I Agree... Transformers visuals/action (this franchise strong point) kinda look trivial in current days, and the current competition is even more severe than 2007, on other words the Transformers franchise keeps losing their initial appeal, unless they start to think in the narrative... But not sure if Michael Bay will lose time with that (in his mind) detail...

@saint_samantha said:
@lukehero said:

Wow...I wonder if Zootpia could make 1 billion...it would be another Disney megahit...

Highly doubt it. It'll get close though.

@petey_is_spidey said:

@asgaard: Even though I liked the first two TF movies, I think next year is the year that the public will give up the franchise, unless the quality of the movie improves.

Of course, I could be wrong.

If you mean the Fast and Furious movies, those movies are awful. It's a shame, IMO, that Furious 7 grossed a billion.

Don't underestimate the Japanese market and its love for animation, like i said Zootopia only was released yesterday in Japan!

Fast and Furious franchise keeps expanding the franchise appeal with new talent and new premise/plots unlike Transformers, not that i am fan of any of this franchise...

@erikarlsson said:

@asgaard: Shouldn't you make one adjusted for inflation?

I think just acknowledge that variable can be very flawed, because you just can't compare the current competition with the past competition, (even 10 years ago), so till there is a study that acknowledges more variables, i think the untouched numbers are still the best way to study past and current success!

@darkdetective27 said:

@asgaard: I know BvS is doing terribly. My comment was regarding how the thread was going to be full of butthurt BvS fanboys real soon as they try to defend the massive disappointment that is BvS. That movie is sinking faster than the Titanic not the movie of course.

I hope Cv can understand that this thread purpose is more about numbers... And for a movie with this reception some numbers are still impressive, the also negative side is that we still don't know how this (poor) reception will affect the Justice League movie...

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saint_samantha

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@saint_samantha: Only made that much because of Paul Walker. That's it. Next won't make nearly as much.

I'm almost certain F8 won't hit the billion mark, much less surpass it by a remarkable degree, but the success of the films in general rubs me in the wrong way. They're well reviewed, people like them, and they're successful in the box office.

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@asgaard: JL will most certainly make less. After all DC already played most of their hand with this movie as they have had Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman all team up on screen taking away the novelty of it. Plus most of JL's runtime will mostly be dedicated to Superman coming back to life and tracking down everyone meaning there likely wont be a whole lot of spectacle in the film. All that on top of the fact that WB has killed most audience members interest in the film and will have to work on the offensive trying to get people interested in this franchise. Id say it will most likely make MoS numbers or less. MoS divided most fans and critics on the DCEU and now BvS has completely divided audiences and created a lot of disinterest in their movies around the world.

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Petey_is_Spidey

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@petey_is_spidey said:

@saint_samantha: Only made that much because of Paul Walker. That's it. Next won't make nearly as much.

I'm almost certain F8 won't hit the billion mark, much less surpass it by a remarkable degree, but the success of the films in general rubs me in the wrong way. They're well reviewed, people like them, and they're successful in the box office.

Yeah, Fast 5 was good and 6 was decent, but the 7th one was SOOOOO overrated.

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TheExile285

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Zootopia was really great. It deserves the BO numbers it has.

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@saint_samantha said:
@petey_is_spidey said:

@saint_samantha: Only made that much because of Paul Walker. That's it. Next won't make nearly as much.

I'm almost certain F8 won't hit the billion mark, much less surpass it by a remarkable degree, but the success of the films in general rubs me in the wrong way. They're well reviewed, people like them, and they're successful in the box office.

Yeah, Fast 5 was good and 6 was decent, but the 7th one was SOOOOO overrated.

I've honestly only seen The Fast and The Furious and Furious 7, both of which were horrendous. I'm not a scowler, that is left for the oldies, but Furious 7 aged me and made me feel awkward to be honest. There is no redeeming quality to them from what I've seen: predictable stories, OTT (over the top), under average performances, there is nothing to redeem the films for me.

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Petey_is_Spidey

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I've never got the whole "deserves the number it got/didn't deserve what it made" saying. It's completely subjective.

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Thorthunder98

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Yea I loved Fast 5 and 6 was good too but 7 I just didn't think was great at all I couldn't concentrate on the plot when all I was thinking is how is there an attack helicopter flying around a big city blowing stuff up and the military haven't been called in for a terrorist threat. It only made that much because of paul walker I think it's pretty evident.

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Asgaard

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@asgaard: JL will most certainly make less. After all DC already played most of their hand with this movie as they have had Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman all team up on screen taking away the novelty of it. Plus most of JL's runtime will mostly be dedicated to Superman coming back to life and tracking down everyone meaning there likely wont be a whole lot of spectacle in the film. All that on top of the fact that WB has killed most audience members interest in the film and will have to work on the offensive trying to get people interested in this franchise. Id say it will most likely make MoS numbers or less. MoS divided most fans and critics on the DCEU and now BvS has completely divided audiences and created a lot of disinterest in their movies around the world.

All your points are valid, but i think we should also acknowledge that the Wonder Woman movie still can be successful on its own and build some hype for the JL, can't be compared with what B v S was trying to achieve, but still a valid variable. Then there is the Batman appeal, sure that in the movie medium you need to have global appeal but have Batman in a movie will never be like have Green Lantern, in the above posts there are references to the Fast & Furious franchise and my point is not compare it directly with anything in the Dceu, but that franchise was almost dead and had a very limited appeal in the first movies, and with some reworks on the premise and cast it become something prosperous (even before Furious 7 and that movie unfortunate production events), to the point where (now) can actually easily cast Charlize Theron... The Dceu is very far away from failure, but perhaps WB should demonstrate that they acknowledged all that happened till now (negative & positive, critics and audiences praised Affleck's Batman), and are willing to try different approaches, if that has potential to help in the foundations of the Dceu, i am not talking of tone or plots its more about plan it over react to the moment...

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#22  Edited By Asgaard

April 29-May 1, 2016 Domestic Weekend Estimates

TWLWTitle (click to view)StudioWeekend Gross% ChangeTheater Count /ChangeAverageTotal GrossBudget*Week #
11The Jungle Book (2016)BV$42,439,000-31.0%4,041+13$10,502$252,095,800$1753
22The Huntsman: Winter's WarUni.$9,390,000-51.7%3,802+11$2,470$33,986,025$1152
3NKeanuWB$9,350,000-2,658-$3,518$9,350,000$151
4NMother's DayORF$8,302,319-3,035-$2,736$8,302,319-1
53Barbershop: The Next CutWB$6,125,000-41.8%2,310-366$2,652$44,705,640-3
64ZootopiaBV$5,006,000-23.9%2,487-311$2,013$323,518,489-9
7NRatchet & ClankFocus$4,823,000-2,891-$1,668$4,823,000-1
85The BossUni.$4,250,000-31.8%2,823-552$1,505$56,111,125$294
96Batman v Superman: Dawn of JusticeWB$3,810,000-30.8%2,330-736$1,635$325,132,593$2506
107Criminal (2016)LG/S$1,325,000-57.5%1,578-1,105$840$13,476,167-3

April 29-May 1, 2016 International Weekend Estimates

Captain America: Civil War doesn’t bring the fight to the U.S. until May 6, but the Disney/Marvel mash-up began its offshore campaign this frame in 37 territories. With an estimated $200.2M, Team Cap and Team Iron Man came in just behind Avengers: Age Of Ultron’s start last year and set all-time opening weekend records in Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines. In total, CACW stepped out this weekend in 63% of the international footprint. On deck for next week are the majors of China, Russia, Italy and Argentina.

Disney estimates the opening on Cap 3 is 5% below Ultron; 26% ahead of Iron Man 3and The Avengers; and +157% ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier when comparing the same suite of territories and all at today’s exchange rates. Ultron went on to be the biggest superhero movie of all time internationally with $946M ($893M at current rates).

The top overseas plays for Steve Rogers vs Tony Stark this frame were Korea ($28.9M), Mexico ($20.6M), the UK ($20.5M), Brazil ($12.3M) and Australia ($10.9M).

The Anthony- and Joe-Russo helmed pic also delivered $9.6M on 205 overseas IMAX screens. The $47K per screen average is nearly double that of Captain America: Winter Soldier.

Disney had a full dance card this weekend, also seeing The Jungle Book swing to another $57.1M internationally for an offshore total of $432.7M. Not to be outdone,Zootopia has crossed $600M international with an $8.3M weekend that takes the offshore cume to $607.9M and the global haul to $931.42M.

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Man I cant believe Batman v Superman is now at 9th. It really has no legs.

Surprised to see Ratchet and Clank not even crack the top 5 with it being a new release.

Also Disney is just taking all the money. Good for them I suppose.

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Already made 200 million...damn...ok then..not bad...It's all about China and the Us though...

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Asgaard

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Man I cant believe Batman v Superman is now at 9th. It really has no legs.

Surprised to see Ratchet and Clank not even crack the top 5 with it being a new release.

Also Disney is just taking all the money. Good for them I suppose.

Like i said in other thread...

Now that production decisions can no longer have (significant) weight on B v S box office performance, Snyder should let it go, if he really likes this characters he needs to acknowledge that movies are not only successful by how much money they make in the box office, the other big part of the equation is the positive hype to keep audiences interested in the future stories, and B v S hype for JL is very questionable...

Last year Disney also released new big franchises like (Tomorrowland & The Good Dinosaur) but the audience feed back was totally different from Zootopia & The Jungle Book(even if this is not exactly a new franchise), acknowledging the fact that The Force Awakens made a lot of money in 2016 (around $700M) and with...

Captain America: Civil War, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Finding Dory, Pete's Dragon, Doctor Strange, Moana, Rogue One ...

Still to come this year Disney has the chance to beat the last year very Impressive all time worldwide record for a movie studio from Universal Studios ($6.89 billion)... (Jurassic World, Furious 7, Minions, Pitch Perfect 2, Fifty Shades of Grey, Straight Outta Compton, Trainwreck, Ted 2... etc)

Universal and Disney have set new yearly records for worldwide grosses, well above 20th Century Fox’s 2014 record of $5.5 billion, thanks to “Jurassic World” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”

Universal finished the year with $6.89 billion, with $1.67 billion of that from “Jurassic World.” Disney followed with $5.85 billion, including $1.33 billion from “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” Link

@lukehero said:

Already made 200 million...damn...ok then..not bad...It's all about China and the Us though...

+157% ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier, this numbers for a sequel are ... only possible in a shared universe...

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Captain America: Civil War will benefit greatly from the large cast of characters, PLUS Black Panther and Spiderman. Many people think this is a 3rd Avengers film.

That being said, not actually HAVING Avengers in the title may hurt it's opening weekend numbers, but not by much.

Floor: $140,000,000

Ceiling: $200,000,000

My safe guess is around $185,000,000

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Petey_is_Spidey

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Man I cant believe Batman v Superman is now at 9th. It really has no legs.

Surprised to see Ratchet and Clank not even crack the top 5 with it being a new release.

Also Disney is just taking all the money. Good for them I suppose.

How do other similar movies typically stack up in their 7th weekend?

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darkdetective27

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@petey_is_spidey: Force Awakens was at 3rd place its 7th weekend.

Avengers was 5th place.

AoU was 8th place.

Deadpool was 7th place.

Winter Soldier was 8th place.

Just seems kind of low considering how this thing was hyped up to be THE event movie of the year and now it cant even manage make more in a weekend than The Boss

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Asgaard

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@darkdetective27 said:

Man I cant believe Batman v Superman is now at 9th. It really has no legs.

Surprised to see Ratchet and Clank not even crack the top 5 with it being a new release.

Also Disney is just taking all the money. Good for them I suppose.

How do other similar movies typically stack up in their 7th weekend?

This is B v S 6th weekend, and in the same (domestic) weekend the movies that are behind (Deadpool), and ahead (Zootopia) in this year worldwide box office and ahead of B v S in the domestic Box Office, were 5th and 3rd with $8M and $14,3M respectively...

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Civil war might beat age of ultron because of good word of mouth on top of the hype

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#31  Edited By Asgaard
@cfrehse said:

Civil war might beat age of ultron because of good word of mouth on top of the hype

I think we should wait to know better the drops pattern and how it will open in the domestic market, i don't know if you already seen the movie, so i will try not spoil anything... Just say that is not an Avengers movie still is a Steve Rogers (and very character driven) movie, in some markets like China (they usually like big scale stuff more) that could have some impact or maybe not because Ant-Man made there (China) $105M more than B v S $95M so i guess its to early to know what kind of (final) numbers this movie can reach...

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#32  Edited By Petey_is_Spidey

I think X-Men will have a big effect on the film. It won't make as much (or will it?????), but seeing that it's ONLY 3 weeks after CW, Civil War's 4th weekend numbers will take a huge hit. Look at how hugles the Deathly Hallows to dropped due to the First Avenger.

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Asgaard

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I think X-Men will have a big effect on the film. It won't make as much (or will it?????), but seeing that it's ONLY 3 weeks after CW, Civil War's 4th weekend numbers will take a huge hit. Look at how hugles the Deathly Hallows to dropped due to the First Avenger.

If Cap Civil War opens in the domestic box office with +$180M and follows the Mcu drops pattern when "X-Men: Apocalypse" and "Alice Through the Looking Glass" (this movie weight is relevant too) are released in the domestic Box office (May, 27)... Cap Civil War already will be close to $400M (domestic box office) so its not that big factor because in that same 4th weekend for ex. A:AaU only made $21M, and when a movie opens with +$180M and is not front-loaded is not that hard have audience for $20M, (specially in the summer season) Captain America: The First Avenger was released on Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, second weekend and that is a totally different scenario... Still don't think Cap Civil War can make Avengers numbers ($1.4-1.5B Worldwide) but also will not say that numbers are impossible... I guess we have to wait and see...

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@darkdetective27: What place overall a movie is in isn't really a good way to judge it. BvS has simply fallen like a lead balloon since its opening weekend. Jungle Book is making way more in its 2nd+ weekends than BvS did and it wasn't even getting much marketing because all people heard about for the last year was star wars, BvS and cw.

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@petey_is_spidey: I bet that civil war would hit the billion dollar mark by the time x-men comes out.

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@asgaard: So this movie had a better opening weekend internationally than The Avengers ??

That´s a very good start

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@asgaard: So this movie had a better opening weekend internationally than The Avengers ??

That´s a very good start

No doubt that Cap Civil War numbers are very good, but regarding the International box office is always subjective to compare opening weekends because this movies are never released in the same countries at the same time and in some countries Avengers performed better (Europe) and in others Cap Civil War started with higher numbers (S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil)...

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Asgaard

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#38  Edited By Asgaard

Saturday AM Update: Friday estimates are in and Captain America: Civil War's chances of becoming the fourth $200+ million opener have been dashed. With an estimated $75.2 million (including $25 million from Thursday night previews), the thirteenth film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is looking at a weekend around $175 million with an outside chance of finishing around $190 million if it follows the same weekend performance as Jurassic World, the first Avengers or even Captain America: The Winter Soldier. The fact all three of those films brought in less money on Thursday night, however, means it's less likely it will follow their weekend path.

Disney will not be sending over an international update this morning so stay tuned for that tomorrow. As of last report, however, Captain America: Civil War's international total was $291.2 million heading into the weekend, which puts the global total at $366.4 million including Friday's domestic number. link

Friday, May 6, 2016

TDYDTitle (Click to View)StudioDaily Gross% +/- YD / LWTheaters / AvgGross To-DateDay
1-Captain America: Civil WarBV$75,253,000--4,226$17,807$75,253,0001
21The Jungle Book (2016)BV$5,694,000+220%-45%4,144$1,374$268,806,26522
32Mother's DayORF$1,916,583+153%-31%3,141$610$13,636,2738
43The Huntsman: Winter's WarUni.$956,000+124%-64%2,901$330$37,739,62015
54KeanuWB$925,000+122%-73%2,681$345$12,945,9378
65ZootopiaBV$700,000+199%-44%2,077$337$325,647,99064
76Barbershop: The Next CutWB$670,000+190%-59%1,734$386$46,738,84322
87The BossUni.$458,000+127%-62%1,933$237$57,810,46029
99Ratchet & ClankFocus$331,000+144%-78%2,895$114$5,964,6338
108Batman v Superman: Dawn of JusticeWB$290,000+93%-69%1,593$182$326,495,13343

Some Cap Civil War Domestic opening day ($75.2M) Head To Head

Jurassic World $81.9M Weekend $208.8M

Avengers $80.8M Weekend $207.4M

A:AoU $84.4M Weekend $191.2M

Iron Man 3 $68.8M Weekend $174.1M

Harry Potter DH P2 $91M Weekend $169.1M

B v S $81,5 Weekend $166M

Possible factors why apparently Cap Civil War (very well received by critics and audiences, Cinema Score A) is not on Avengers level in the opening day/weekend (projections)...

-Brand (not Avengers on the title)

- Scale/Threat, The movie still feels and is a Captain America movie

- Some possible comic book movie fatigue

- B v S reception could have hurt the genre at least for the ones with +$150M opening weekend aspirations

That said what matters is how it ends and Cap Civil War can have better legs than A.AoU in the domestic box office and make more than $459M...

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It's embarrassing that a movie featuring Batman and Superman duking it out + Wonder Woman, couldn't even make 900 million. Yet Snyder is still making these films.

@asgaard said:

Saturday AM Update: Friday estimates are in and Captain America: Civil War's chances of becoming the fourth $200+ million opener have been dashed. With an estimated $75.2 million (including $25 million from Thursday night previews), the thirteenth film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is looking at a weekend around $175 million with an outside chance of finishing around $190 million if it follows the same weekend performance as Jurassic World, the first Avengers or even Captain America: The Winter Soldier. The fact all three of those films brought in less money on Thursday night, however, means it's less likely it will follow their weekend path.

Disney will not be sending over an international update this morning so stay tuned for that tomorrow. As of last report, however, Captain America: Civil War's international total was $291.2 million heading into the weekend, which puts the global total at $366.4 million including Friday's domestic number. link

Friday, May 6, 2016

TDYDTitle (Click to View)StudioDaily Gross% +/- YD / LWTheaters / AvgGross To-DateDay
1-Captain America: Civil WarBV$75,253,000--4,226$17,807$75,253,0001
21The Jungle Book (2016)BV$5,694,000+220%-45%4,144$1,374$268,806,26522
32Mother's DayORF$1,916,583+153%-31%3,141$610$13,636,2738
43The Huntsman: Winter's WarUni.$956,000+124%-64%2,901$330$37,739,62015
54KeanuWB$925,000+122%-73%2,681$345$12,945,9378
65ZootopiaBV$700,000+199%-44%2,077$337$325,647,99064
76Barbershop: The Next CutWB$670,000+190%-59%1,734$386$46,738,84322
87The BossUni.$458,000+127%-62%1,933$237$57,810,46029
99Ratchet & ClankFocus$331,000+144%-78%2,895$114$5,964,6338
108Batman v Superman: Dawn of JusticeWB$290,000+93%-69%1,593$182$326,495,13343

Some Cap Civil War Domestic opening day ($75.2M) Head To Head

Jurassic World $81.9M Weekend $208.8M

Avengers $80.8M Weekend $207.4M

A:AoU $84.4M Weekend $191.2M

Iron Man 3 $68.8M Weekend $174.1M

Harry Potter DH P2 $91M Weekend $169.1M

B v S $81,5 Weekend $166M

Possible factors why apparently Cap Civil War (very well received by critics and audiences, Cinema Score A) is not on Avengers level in the opening day/weekend (projections)...

-Brand (not Avengers on the title)

- Scale/Threat, The movie still feels and is a Captain America movie

- Some possible comic book movie fatigue

- B v S reception could have hurt the genre at least for the ones with +$150M opening weekend aspirations

That said what matters is how it ends and Cap Civil War can have better legs that A.AoU in the domestic box office and make more than $459M...

@spambot: @cfrehse:@theexile285: @erikarlsson: @saint_samantha: @thorthunder98: @petey_is_spidey: @lukehero:@darkdetective27:

I'm not expecting Marvel's The Avengers numbers for Civil War. Best of us not to overestimate it's BO. But I agree with all of your points, with the exception of Batman v. Superman's reception hurting Civil War. Let's just call it comic book movie fatigue and leave it at that.

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@asgaard: I think the movie will still make more than Age of Ultron. There is no Superhero fatigue in my mind. It's just a genre now. Make good movies and market the movies to people who want them. Once minimum wage in every state is around $15 an hour and/or higher people will have more money to spend on movies overall.

Honestly the movies that are gonna flop are proprieties people just don't care about: John Carter, Long Ranger, etc. Stuff like that, that people didn't ask for. It will keep ranking in money and only get some competition once X-Men is released.

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Asgaard

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@saint_samantha:

I'm not expecting Marvel's The Avengers numbers for Civil War. Best of us not to overestimate it's BO. But I agree with all of your points, with the exception of Batman v. Superman's reception hurting Civil War. Let's just call it comic book movie fatigue and leave it at that.

Fair enough... We need more numbers/data specially from the next comic book movies...

@asgaard: can you untag me?

OK...

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@asgaard said:

@saint_samantha:

I'm not expecting Marvel's The Avengers numbers for Civil War. Best of us not to overestimate it's BO. But I agree with all of your points, with the exception of Batman v. Superman's reception hurting Civil War. Let's just call it comic book movie fatigue and leave it at that.

Fair enough... We need more numbers/data specially from the next comic book movies...

@theexile285 said:

@asgaard: can you untag me?

OK...

How much do you guess Doctor Strange will gross?

I'm expecting in the 500-550 million range, mostly because of the all star cast.

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@lukehero:

So you are saying that this genre is well established now and the numbers will become more constant because the special/unique appeal factors are gone like in the original Avengers movie? That is interesting but doesn't that also means that spend $400M in a comic book movie is more tricky than when the market wasn't so established (regarding this Genre) and movie studios still could dream with +$1.5B? Not saying that Avengers Infinity War movies will not make that numbers but what about after that... And WB/DC?

@saint_samantha:

Without knowing the reception and going only by all Ant-Man numbers some numbers of Thor/Cap/GotG, China market constant growing, Dr. Strange appeal (superior to Ant-Man), cast (like you mentioned) premise/scale/visuals i am expecting around $650M...

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@asgaard: I think you are hitting the right notes. The market is going to stabilize, the initial curiosity is gone. Only things that could change that is something major like X-Men vs Avengers, maybe...FF being in an MCU movie, but IDK if a general audience still gives a hoot about the FF. I think spending 400 mil on a comicbook movie unless your well established is insane. Every big movie isn't making 1 billion. I think people: fans and industry people clearly take for granted how hard it is for any movie to make a billion. I mean even X-Men hasn't made a billion dollar movie yet and their universe is much more well established than DCEU is. In fact, I'm calling it now: JL will not make 1 billion. There...I said it.

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Asgaard

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#46  Edited By Asgaard

@lukehero:

I agree, make $1B is not easy for any movie (regardless the genre) even if the brand is very popular and the studio spent in the production/marketing a lot of money... Sure that the average ticket price is superior when compared with the past decades, but what about competition? Yeah today is very rare for movies (even big blockbusters) breathe more than one weekend without new (big budget) releases, some months like 2017, June & July look insane in terms of big releases and how close they are... If competition keeps rising the long term plan and the capacity to accomplish it, can become a very relevant variable, because that will affect how rival studios will perceive announced release dates for the summer of 2020... A lot of stuff from Hollywood still looks that was done in autopilot, I wonder if in general movie studios and their most notable producers are really ready to play some poker and chess in the next years...

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@asgaard said:

Saturday AM Update: Friday estimates are in and Captain America: Civil War's chances of becoming the fourth $200+ million opener have been dashed. With an estimated $75.2 million (including $25 million from Thursday night previews), the thirteenth film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is looking at a weekend around $175 million with an outside chance of finishing around $190 million if it follows the same weekend performance as Jurassic World, the first Avengers or even Captain America: The Winter Soldier. The fact all three of those films brought in less money on Thursday night, however, means it's less likely it will follow their weekend path.

Disney will not be sending over an international update this morning so stay tuned for that tomorrow. As of last report, however, Captain America: Civil War's international total was $291.2 million heading into the weekend, which puts the global total at $366.4 million including Friday's domestic number. link

Friday, May 6, 2016

TDYDTitle (Click to View)StudioDaily Gross% +/- YD / LWTheaters / AvgGross To-DateDay
1-Captain America: Civil WarBV$75,253,000--4,226$17,807$75,253,0001
21The Jungle Book (2016)BV$5,694,000+220%-45%4,144$1,374$268,806,26522
32Mother's DayORF$1,916,583+153%-31%3,141$610$13,636,2738
43The Huntsman: Winter's WarUni.$956,000+124%-64%2,901$330$37,739,62015
54KeanuWB$925,000+122%-73%2,681$345$12,945,9378
65ZootopiaBV$700,000+199%-44%2,077$337$325,647,99064
76Barbershop: The Next CutWB$670,000+190%-59%1,734$386$46,738,84322
87The BossUni.$458,000+127%-62%1,933$237$57,810,46029
99Ratchet & ClankFocus$331,000+144%-78%2,895$114$5,964,6338
108Batman v Superman: Dawn of JusticeWB$290,000+93%-69%1,593$182$326,495,13343

Some Cap Civil War Domestic opening day ($75.2M) Head To Head

Jurassic World $81.9M Weekend $208.8M

Avengers $80.8M Weekend $207.4M

A:AoU $84.4M Weekend $191.2M

Iron Man 3 $68.8M Weekend $174.1M

Harry Potter DH P2 $91M Weekend $169.1M

B v S $81,5 Weekend $166M

Possible factors why apparently Cap Civil War (very well received by critics and audiences, Cinema Score A) is not on Avengers level in the opening day/weekend (projections)...

-Brand (not Avengers on the title)

- Scale/Threat, The movie still feels and is a Captain America movie

- Some possible comic book movie fatigue

- B v S reception could have hurt the genre at least for the ones with +$150M opening weekend aspirations

That said what matters is how it ends and Cap Civil War can have better legs than A.AoU in the domestic box office and make more than $459M...

Makes you wonder how much BvS would have made if the critics liked it. It would have been EASILY passed 1 billion. Per Google trends, it had more hype behind it then TFA.

And I told people that this not having the Avengers ON THE TITLE will hurt it's numbers. Just watched it today, and though it was a Captain America movie and felt like such, you could slap an Avengers title on their and most casuals could be fooled.

I don't think it's comic book fatigue. That's been coming for 10 years, and still isn't here.

Still gonna make around $1.1 billion.

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Asgaard

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@petey_is_spidey:

I don't think B v S would made that much more with other reception from the critics in the first weekend, maybe more $15M, +-$180M, but the drops in the next weekends would have been very different... Keep in mind that the Nolan movies (well received by critics) also had strong Fridays but the tone make this movies have less appeal on Sundays unlike the Mcu movies... Jurassic World, and Star Wars FW, honestly (regardless the reception) i don't know if it is possible for a movie that is not that family friendly make more than $200M in the domestic opening weekend, because the Sunday numbers still have their weight... Yet doesn't mean that can't end with higher numbers TdkR basically made as much as A.AoU in the domestic Box office and the Avengers sequel opened with stronger numbers....

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Petey_is_Spidey

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On a slightly similar note, I would just like to take a chance to put Man of Steel's Box Office performance in perspective.

Man of Steel made $668,045,518 at the Box Office. That would make it the:

  • 15th highest grossing Superhero movie
  • 15th highest grossing CBM
  • Highest grossing solo Superman movie
  • 6th highest grossing origin film
  • 5th highest grossing solo origin film
  • 4th highest grossing DC film
  • 10th highest grossing solo film

Yeah, it could have done better. But it is by no way a failure as some would think.

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Any predictions on the Suicide Squad box office numbers?