Predicting Avengers: Infinity War's Box Office

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#151 Edited by TonyMartial (10312 posts) - - Show Bio

@amcu: Its amazing how we (UK) make so much money for Marvel films considering how small we are compared to australia, india etc.

But yeah, I agree it wont be a significant impact.

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#152 Posted by Amcu (17480 posts) - - Show Bio

@amcu: Its amazing how we (UK) make so much money for Marvel films considering how small we are compared to australia, india etc.

But yeah, I agree it wont be a significant impact.

Yeah I was a bit surprised as well.

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#153 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

A $39 million opening on Thursday night projects this to possibly take in $270-$279 million for the weekend when compared to CIvil War doing 25M and Ultron doing 27.6M (and going on to 179M and 191M openings respectively). My prediction for the weekend is still $265M but am hoping for the higher figures.

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#154 Edited by TonyMartial (10312 posts) - - Show Bio

@byrd42: Is your prediction for the 4day or 3day

My 1.45b wwprediction is at risk. It could still become frontloaded.

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#155 Posted by WhyZoSerious (2128 posts) - - Show Bio

This is a movie worth 2b. I'm getting really optimistic about surpassing The force awakens.

Online
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#156 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

@byrd42: Is your prediction for the 4day or 3day

My 1.45b wwprediction is at risk. It could still become frontloaded.

Yes, Thursday is always counted by the industry as a part of the 3 day weekend.

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#157 Edited by theCrazyBean (1842 posts) - - Show Bio

@tonymartial: Your prediction is way too low because at this point 1,5b+ is guaranteed. Word of mouth from general audiences is strong af in international markets, and China is tracking an OW of 150m+. Even in Germany, where MCU movies are not that strong, Infinity war is having a great opening weekend (tracking says it'll be somewhere around 17m usd, for comparison AoU had a 9,4m OW).

Total gross for the weekend worldwide is expected to be of 500+m, and that's without China and Rusia (in Russia it opens next week and in china in 2 weeks).

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#159 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

There can be no question at all that this will do more than 1.6 B at the absolute minimum.

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#160 Posted by webinyoureye11 (5928 posts) - - Show Bio

2 billion

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#161 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17932 posts) - - Show Bio
No Caption Provided

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#162 Posted by webinyoureye11 (5928 posts) - - Show Bio
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#163 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17932 posts) - - Show Bio

Infinity War just topped The Force Awakens for the biggest domestic opening weekend all of all time, and topped The Fate of The Furious as the biggest global opening weekend of all time.

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#164 Posted by RichardCranium (766 posts) - - Show Bio

Infinity War just topped The Force Awakens for the biggest domestic opening weekend all of all time, and topped The Fate of The Furious as the biggest global opening weekend of all time.

It is largely based on Sunday's estimate of US$61 million which allowed it to barely cross The Force Awakens' US$248 million.

The keyword is "barely". It all depends on Sunday's actual figure.

One should remember that Star Wars franchise films are massively huge in the U.S, more than any CBM... but is a typical overperforming tentpole outside of U.S. There are other future figures to consider, like how much the revenue dropoff is after 1-2 weeks. From what I saw of Star Wars The Force Awakens, it had a long life at the U.S Box Office i.e.: The revenue dropoff isn't steep and isn't front-loaded.

CBMs are typically front-loaded from what I heard.

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#165 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17932 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey said:

Infinity War just topped The Force Awakens for the biggest domestic opening weekend all of all time, and topped The Fate of The Furious as the biggest global opening weekend of all time.

It is largely based on Sunday's estimate of US$61 million which allowed it to barely cross The Force Awakens' US$248 million.

The keyword is "barely". It all depends on Sunday's actual figure.

One should remember that Star Wars franchise films are massively huge in the U.S, more than any CBM... but is a typical overperforming tentpole outside of U.S. There are other future figures to consider, like how much the revenue dropoff is after 1-2 weeks. From what I saw of Star Wars The Force Awakens, it had a long life at the U.S Box Office i.e.: The revenue dropoff isn't steep and isn't front-loaded.

CBMs are typically front-loaded from what I heard.

It's definitely surpassing the first Avengers WW.

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#166 Posted by RichardCranium (766 posts) - - Show Bio

@richardcranium said:
@theamazingspidey said:

Infinity War just topped The Force Awakens for the biggest domestic opening weekend all of all time, and topped The Fate of The Furious as the biggest global opening weekend of all time.

It is largely based on Sunday's estimate of US$61 million which allowed it to barely cross The Force Awakens' US$248 million.

The keyword is "barely". It all depends on Sunday's actual figure.

One should remember that Star Wars franchise films are massively huge in the U.S, more than any CBM... but is a typical overperforming tentpole outside of U.S. There are other future figures to consider, like how much the revenue dropoff is after 1-2 weeks. From what I saw of Star Wars The Force Awakens, it had a long life at the U.S Box Office i.e.: The revenue dropoff isn't steep and isn't front-loaded.

CBMs are typically front-loaded from what I heard.

It's definitely surpassing the first Avengers WW.

I am still a little skeptical but based on the hype I do think it has a much better chance of becoming the highest-grossing CBM unlike basing on the hype of say, Batman v Superman and Justice League.

Because we can't just look at the opening figures, the drop-off in revenue in subsequent weeks is also something to analyze.

Force Awakens' long U.S box office life was due to it being the first Star Wars film in a long while and had the original actors/actresses involved. Wonder Woman and Black Panther's long U.S box office life was due to them being the "first" of a cultural aspect within that Superhero genre.

What has Infinity War to offer? As I mentioned in another post in another thread, I am guessing its the idea of an epic superhero film that might ensure its long life at the box office but haven't other movies did epic films before?

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#167 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17932 posts) - - Show Bio

@richardcranium:

What has Infinity War to offer?

Of course it has something to offer. It's an event of the decade. If it had nothing to offer, it wouldn't have broken all of these records.

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#168 Posted by RichardCranium (766 posts) - - Show Bio

@richardcranium:

What has Infinity War to offer?

Of course it has something to offer. It's an event of the decade. If it had nothing to offer, it wouldn't have broken all of these records.

Hope it does, not that I have invested any money in Marvel Studios nor in any movie ticket (yet), but I am expecting something good when I inevitably watch that film.

I am thinking its long-living hype if any, will be largely due to that factor.

Which brought me to thinking about how would the sequel to Infinity War be performing. It would be lower than Infinity War?

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#169 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17932 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey said:

@richardcranium:

What has Infinity War to offer?

Of course it has something to offer. It's an event of the decade. If it had nothing to offer, it wouldn't have broken all of these records.

Hope it does, not that I have invested any money in Marvel Studios nor in any movie ticket (yet), but I am expecting something good when I inevitably watch that film.

I am thinking its long-living hype if any, will be largely due to that factor.

Which brought me to thinking about how would the sequel to Infinity War be performing. It would be lower than Infinity War?

I feel like I can't answer that question without spoiling the movie, so.....

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#170 Edited by RichardCranium (766 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey said:
@richardcranium said:
@theamazingspidey said:

@richardcranium:

What has Infinity War to offer?

Of course it has something to offer. It's an event of the decade. If it had nothing to offer, it wouldn't have broken all of these records.

Hope it does, not that I have invested any money in Marvel Studios nor in any movie ticket (yet), but I am expecting something good when I inevitably watch that film.

I am thinking its long-living hype if any, will be largely due to that factor.

Which brought me to thinking about how would the sequel to Infinity War be performing. It would be lower than Infinity War?

I feel like I can't answer that question without spoiling the movie, so.....

Lots of assholes had already partially spoiled the film throughout these forums and YouTube, good thing is that most of them aren't really anything major yet. If you are going to tell me specifically that the film ends on a cliffhanger (I already knew that), that's pretty obvious IMO because of its clear that Avengers Infinity War is only part 1 of a saga finale.

I have pretty bad prediction at CBM box office, but still I wanted to comment on some back history behind the naming for the Avengers film. My understanding for why they removed "Part I/II" from the Avengers Infinity saga films is because films that are split into two parts had reportedly bad critical reputation, and that I suspect may have an impact on box office. Its a double-edged sword in terms of risk.

1) People who watch "Part I" knew its only the first part and hold on to their money for the epic finale... and therefore the crowd becomes even bigger for "Part II" - Harry Potter The Deathly Hallows scenario.

2) There's also the possibility that people are so hyped during "Part I" but for various reasons get turned off and the crowd becomes smaller for "Part II" - Matrix Reloaded and Matrix Revolutions scenario.

Which scenario does Avengers Infinity War belong to?

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#171 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17932 posts) - - Show Bio

@richardcranium: I'm honestly not sure which way Avengers 4 will go to be honest. It's too early to tell. It's tough for me to make predictions about a movie a year before it is released. But Toy Story 4 comes out a month after A4, which could impact A4's box-office to a degree.

I really don't get why Disney is so awful at choosing when to release their movies. Imagine if Disney chose to release Solo on August instead of May - Infinity War would make even more money than it already will. Infinity War/A4 will never reach their full box-office potential because Disney chose to release big movies a month after them.

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#172 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

Second weekend estimates for Infinity War have it at $112 million. If it really drops that low I think its projected path will have it finish up at around $655 million domestically. My pre-release prediction was $678M and that may be difficult to reach depending on how big the second week drop is.

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#173 Posted by Caesar16 (192 posts) - - Show Bio

At this point, 2 billion doesn't seem inconceivable.

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#174 Posted by war of light_2814 (2910 posts) - - Show Bio

Honestly, 2 billion is more likely than not at this point.

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#175 Posted by m2k (644 posts) - - Show Bio

After this weekend, by the looks of it I'm gonna say

650-700 mill domestic

2.2-2.3 bill WW (overseas just too insane)

Simply incredible!

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#176 Posted by KillBilly (3294 posts) - - Show Bio

Gonna hazard a guess for 2.3 billion.

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#177 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

1.9 billion is now a bare minimum figure world wide with 2.1B looking most likely although it could go even higher. Avatar's record looks out of reach but that would be nice..

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#178 Posted by Lone_Wolf_and_Cub (9211 posts) - - Show Bio

Remember when people were saying this movie wouldn’t make more than Avengers and Avengers AoU? Lmfao

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#179 Posted by APEX_pretador (21481 posts) - - Show Bio

2b

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#180 Posted by RudeBomberBoy01 (4559 posts) - - Show Bio

@lone_wolf_and_cub:

Haha I love coming back to these old threads to laugh at those predictions.. It's like people never learn with predicting things involving the MCU.

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#181 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

After exactly two weeks in on Infinity War's run it looks like it's rate of fall is going to put it between $630 and $650 million domestically (my pre-release prediction is $678M). If Deadpool and Solo were not opening in the next two weeks I would add $30 to $40 million to that figure. These figures are based on the movie taking in an estimated $62 million this coming weekend. I personally hope it does better than $68 million.

The current international daily take is about twice what the USA is making so it looks like the global box office for Infinity War will be between 1.75 and 1.8 billion WITHOUT China. China is expected to take in between 270 and 300 million, which means 2 billion is almost assured. 1.9 billion was my pre-release prediction.

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#182 Edited by BullPR (6225 posts) - - Show Bio

Bump.

Data from China will be soon released by Disney.

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#183 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

As of now it is at 1.6B. It had a 199.3 M opening in China. If it has close to Fate of the Furious' legs there and approaches 400M there it has an outside chance of approaching 2.1B.

The most pessimistic possible path for Infinity War now puts it at about 1.96B world wide. The most optimistic path (one in which it makes 425M in China) puts it at about 2.19B world wide. My best guess at this point is 2.07B, leaving it behind only Avatar and Titanic world wide (and James Cameron's wish comes true).

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#184 Posted by Lord_Titan_ (2909 posts) - - Show Bio

Well im happy to be right, the film should sail past 1.7 billion by next week

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#185 Posted by deactivated-5bb6a6f86dc65 (4972 posts) - - Show Bio

already at 1.814 billion

also i was wrong about deadpool 2 being a non-factor, it's already at over 300 million worldwide lmao wth

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#186 Posted by Worldofthunder (5192 posts) - - Show Bio

2,1 bill at its end

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#187 Posted by Thorthunder98 (6943 posts) - - Show Bio

I think maybe $1.8 Billion worldwide

Well it reached this but I think it has a very slim chance of passing $2B but I can't see it beating TFA it would need about $300M more

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#188 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

@thorthunder98 said:

I think maybe $1.8 Billion worldwide

Well it reached this but I think it has a very slim chance of passing $2B but I can't see it beating TFA it would need about $300M more

Very slim chance? 2 billion is pretty much an absolute lock at this point. If it stops playing right now everywhere in the world except for North America it would land at 1.9B or within $10 million of it, on just what it does here ($50-$60 more million). So then it just needs another hundred million from the rest of the world. The daily intake for Infinity War this week is at about a 3 to 1 ratio internationally compared to North America, so at the current pace, IW will take in $150-$180 million more internationally and $50-$60 million more domestically. The bare minimum figure at this point is $2.04 billion (about $28 million behind TFA).

It has around a 20% shot of hitting 2.1 billion. Passing TFA looks to be about 50% likely at this point. It will likely land within 35 million of TFA in either direction.

What looks to be out of reach is Titanic, unless Disney gives it a major push with advertising.

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#189 Posted by BullPR (6225 posts) - - Show Bio

Now that the 2B bar has been officially crossed (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel0518.htm): just for the fun, let's look back at the predictions from this thread initiated by @theamazingspidey

Some of you were way of mark, some were very close!

I think maybe $1.8 Billion worldwide

Not bad

It wont even outgross the first Avengers film.

(...)

Infinity War will make around 1.4Bill.

Very bad

At least 2 Billion. Probably more.

Good

I say 2.01B

Very good!

I'm predicting 1.8 billion at least.

Only possible competition is Solo, DP 2 is a non-factor lmao.

First part: not bad. Second part: very bad (ahahaha)

Could be anywhere from 1.5-1.9, I'll take the middle at 1.7 billion.

Not very good

I reckon it will make 2 Billion worldwide without a doubt. It might pass Force Awakens and Titanic but unlikely to pass Avatar. (...)

Quite good

I say it will be the highest grossing MCU movie. It will make at least 1.6 billion. I put it's best beating TFA, but I dont see it overtaking Titanic.

Not bad

(...)

My prediction:

1.7bil

95% RT

Not very good

@rbt said:

Hard to say at this point. I am predicting somewhere between 1.5b-1.8b. 2b is almost impossible going by current pre sales numbers.

Not very good

@caesar16 said:

I think it's gonna cross 2 billion worldwide.

Good

Considering BP broke a 1 Billion I can't see IW making less than 2 Billion.

Good

I think it has a shot at 2 billion. It has all the momentum and hype built up. If its good and passes TFA is world wide box office it will show that the MCU has passed Star Wars as the top franchise.

Good

Assuming it gets a $235 million opening weekend and a 3.0x multiplier (which is honestly not likely, you cannot really predict legs), it will finish with around $700 million domestic.

Age of Ultron made $940 million in foreign territories and we can assume that it will go up for this film. My guess is $1.0-$1.1 billion foreign for a worldwide total of $1.7-$1.8 billion.

Good analysis for North America, not worldwide

@thorthunder98 said:

I think maybe $1.8 Billion worldwide

Not good enough

@byrd42 said:

My prediction for over all domestic take is $678 million, which will likely be below Black Panther (which will probably end at around $685 million), and my prediction for world wide is 1.85 billion.

Excellent for domestic!

If it didn't beat 2 billion I'd be surprised honestly.

Good

2,2 billions.

Too high

I say it makes 1.6-1.8 million.

Too low

@ganon15 said:

Near 2 Billion

Not bad

Honestly it'll probably make something along the lines of 1.3 billion.

Very bad

OP: 192~208mil, I would say 205mil.

Domestic: 550~610mil, I would say 603mil.

WW: 1,5~1,7bi, I would say 1,6bi.

Quite bad

@crash_ said:

2 billion.

Quite good

@mraugen said:

.65 billion domestic

1.15 billion internationally

1.8 billion total

Too low

2.2 bil

Probably too high

@amcu said:

I still don't see it doing $2 billion. I'd love to be wrong but $1.45-$1.7 Billion seems like a good prediction to me. Maybe a little more or less.

You were wrong...

Only 20% of the viners from this thread put the film at 2B.

So does it deserve it (excellent movie) or not (sold as the last movie of the current version of the MCU and as independent from Avengers 4, but was it really that?)

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#190 Posted by Amcu (17480 posts) - - Show Bio

@bullpr: It deserves it. It's the best CBM or tied with the best. And it is easily the best $2 billion dollar film by a mile.

What makes it more impressive is that it did all of this in the summer without the benefit of the holiday to bolster its legs. All the other $2 billion movies had holiday IIRC.

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#191 Posted by ganon15 (7324 posts) - - Show Bio

Remember when certain users doubted it would pass the first Avengers film?

No Caption Provided

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#192 Posted by m2k (644 posts) - - Show Bio

It ain't close to being done either. If this gets close to 685 domestic, it has a small shot at catching TFA. It's got an extension in China last I heard so that helps.

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#193 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

It's current path puts it at about 2.05 billion, maybe a measly 18 million short of TFA. Disney needs to put a little more advertising in to give it some better legs.

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#194 Posted by WhyZoSerious (2128 posts) - - Show Bio

650m Deadpool 2 worldwide. Otherwise it would have gone for 2.2 easily, even more. The trailers just sucked bad so I didn't expect that kinda influence.

Online
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#195 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

@byrd42 said:
@tonymartial said:

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

And yet, a Black Panther movie, that the general populace was completely oblivious to the existence of a year before it came out, did $202 million opening weekend, which is 82% of TFA. Infinity War definitely has a real shot at the opening weekend record. My prediction is $265 million OW.

My prediction for over all domestic take is $678 million, which will likely be below Black Panther (which will probably end at around $685 million), and my prediction for world wide is 1.85 billion.

Well, Infinity War has been pulled from theaters after 20 weeks, and its domestic total was $678.8 million. I was pretty much right on the money with my domestic prediction. Glad to be wrong with my international prediction.