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Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio
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This is going to a short blog because I'm more interested in hearing everyone else's opinions: Black Panther just joined Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar as the highest grossing movies of all time, domestically, grossing $665 million, surpassing even Titanic. It has also grossed 1.3 billion worldwide, making it the 10th highest grossing film of all-time worldwide. This is an outstanding feat which has gotten people talking now, more than ever, about how Infinity War will measure up, both domestically and worldwide. Take into consideration that the first Avengers is the 6th highest grossing movie of all time, domestically(3 spots behind Black Panther) and Age of Ultron is the 14th highest grossing movie of all time, domestically(8 spots behind Black Panther). So, where will Infinity War land? Will it surpass the first Avengers film? Will it surpass Black Panther?

I'm personally not all that good with predicting domestic gross, but in terms of worldwide box-office, I do believe Infinity War will surpass the first Avengers film, which is currently at $1.5 billion worldwide, making it the 5th highest grossing movie of all time. Why?

  1. The hype for this movie is insane. My friend - a casual viewer - sat me down in art class and started talking to me about Soul Stone theories.
  2. The movie is projected to open to 200 million, which could climb even higher in the next few weeks. I can it surpassing the first Avengers' opening ($207 million).
  3. Wakanda has been prominently featured in the marketing, so I can see all the people who supported Black Panther and made it such a huge success, coming out to see IW.
  4. Despite a lot of people saying the movie "won't have strong legs" because Deadpool 2 and Solo are releasing shortly after, I doubt that will be the case. In the case of Solo: there is so many apathy around that movie and so many people don't give a damn or even know it exists. And in terms of Deadpool 2, not only does the movie not look good, but the demographic for the two movies are different, with Infinity War having broader appeal. Honestly, if any movies are going to be hurt by this at the box office, it will be Deadpool 2 and Solo. I doubt anyone is going to say "y'know, that new Avengers movie with all these heroes is out, but instead I'm gonna go watch the Han Solo movie!" (Don't get me wrong - I'm looking forward to Solo, but that's the truth).

What do you think? What are your domestic and worldwide predictions for Infinity War?

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#1 Edited by deactivated-5b60e98a8eb99 (11593 posts) - - Show Bio

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#2 Posted by Thorthunder98 (6802 posts) - - Show Bio

I think maybe $1.8 Billion worldwide

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#3 Posted by Emperorb777 (11284 posts) - - Show Bio

Are you getting a portion of the funds?

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#4 Posted by deactivated-5add3922b3476 (699 posts) - - Show Bio

It's going to make a ton.

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#5 Posted by black_wreath (13557 posts) - - Show Bio

It's always about money with you Americans...

Heh.

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#6 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio

It's always about money with you Americans...

Heh.

C'mon you know me better than to call me American lol.

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#7 Posted by black_wreath (13557 posts) - - Show Bio
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#8 Posted by TonyMartial (9718 posts) - - Show Bio

It wont even outgross the first Avengers film.

Look at Civil War for e.g, I remember tons of people saying this move it beating the Avengers because of them marketing Spider-Man in the end, saying it has tons of "hype", there hasnt been an MCU film since Ant-Man and they've learnt from their AOU mistakes. I'll admit myself the entire Civil War marketing campaign was very good.. It didnt even beat Iron Man 3 in the end.

This films legs will also get killed by competition (Like X-Men Apoc did to Civil War in 2016) and HD Rips, except this time its Deadpool 2, which will definitely make more money than X-Men Apoc. Solo also in later May, everyone keeps saying is gonna flop but we know that its damn Star Wars film, definitely will have a 100m+ OW.

What I do think is gonna happen is, it will open big. I was on the box office sub earlier and some did great analysis on how loads of people want to avoid spoilers about this film and will see it on the OW ,compared to other MCU films (so lets say near Force Awakens level OW so 240m dom?), then it will have a Civil War level drops and legs, then competition and pirated stuff will kill it. Im going for it barely passing Age of Ultron. The only reason why I'm saying it will pass Age of Ultron is because of Black Panthers success and GOTG being in the film (Some people didnt know that the GOTG are in the same universe as the Avengers, Spidey) etc.

So....

Infinity War will make around 1.4Bill.

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#9 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey: Domestic this domestic that, you could've fooled me... Iggy...

Iggy? Iggy who? Iggy Pop cuz I'm like an old man? Iggy Azealea because I'm Australian? I don't know.

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#10 Edited by deactivated-5c830d4e319e6 (4952 posts) - - Show Bio

At least 2 Billion. Probably more.

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#11 Posted by Chimeroid (9267 posts) - - Show Bio

I say 2.01B

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#12 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio

It wont even outgross the first Avengers film.

Look at Civil War for e.g, I remember tons of people saying this move it beating the Avengers because of them marketing Spider-Man in the end, saying it has tons of "hype", there hasnt been an MCU film since Ant-Man and they've learnt from their AOU mistakes. I'll admit myself the entire Civil War marketing campaign was very good.. It didnt even beat Iron Man 3 in the end.

This films legs will also get killed by competition (Like X-Men Apoc did to Civil War in 2016) and HD Rips, except this time its Deadpool 2, which will definitely make more money than X-Men Apoc. Solo also in later May, everyone keeps saying is gonna flop but we know that its damn Star Wars film, definitely will have a 100m+ OW.

What I do think is gonna happen is, it will open big. I was on the box office sub earlier and some did great analysis on how loads of people want to avoid spoilers about this film and will see it on the OW ,compared to other MCU films (so lets say near Force Awakens level OW so 240m dom?), then it will have a Civil War level drops and legs, then competition and pirated stuff will kill it. Im going for it barely passing Age of Ultron. The only reason why I'm saying it will pass Age of Ultron is because of Black Panthers success and GOTG being in the film (Some people didnt know that the GOTG are in the same universe as the Avengers, Spidey) etc.

So....

Infinity War will make around 1.4Bill.

Thanks for sharing your opinion xD

That said, I think you will be wrong. Worldwide, this movie will definitely surpass the first Avengers.

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#13 Posted by black_wreath (13557 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey: ugh as much as I want to call you a Stooge, the latter because you're "Australian". You know you gotta get your head out of the States brother, them hybrids never turn out right: Iggy, Mel etc.

You never bring up how much these movies make here... >.>

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#14 Edited by deactivated-5bb6a6f86dc65 (4972 posts) - - Show Bio

I'm predicting 1.8 billion at least.

Only possible competition is Solo, DP 2 is a non-factor lmao.

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#15 Posted by Eto (5305 posts) - - Show Bio
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#16 Posted by war of light_2814 (2744 posts) - - Show Bio

Could be anywhere from 1.5-1.9, I'll take the middle at 1.7 billion.

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#17 Posted by skywalker95 (4722 posts) - - Show Bio

I reckon it will make 2 Billion worldwide without a doubt. It might pass Force Awakens and Titanic but unlikely to pass Avatar. Shame really, i would love it to surpass Avatar. If there is one film that should beat Avatars reign of the highest grossing Film of all time it's Infinity War.

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#18 Posted by Eto (5305 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey: Well, with all the hype, I think it will beat the first Avengers. Ten year build-up, as aforementioned, even "casual viewers" are hyped AF for this. That alone should say more than enough. Moreover, both Solo and DP2 are non-factor.

Why?

Well, for one, the title of the SW film is: SOLO (all in caps IIRC) and then underneath in little letters "a star wars story". Yeah right, most people would jump at it if it said "STAR WARS something something" but in this case the title star wars is undermined IMO.

Another thing going for DP2 is the fact that it got massive backlash for Domino choice, the reshoots, etc. A lot of aspects happened behind the scenes, this might hurt the DP2 film and benefit IW.

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#19 Posted by black_wreath (13557 posts) - - Show Bio

@eto: thems fighting words!

Nah I'm Aussie, I'm just busting his balls as is customary here.

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#20 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio
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#21 Posted by Eto (5305 posts) - - Show Bio
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#22 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio

@eto said:

@theamazingspidey: Well, with all the hype, I think it will beat the first Avengers. Ten year build-up, as aforementioned, even "casual viewers" are hyped AF for this. That alone should say more than enough. Moreover, both Solo and DP2 are non-factor.

Why?

Well, for one, the title of the SW film is: SOLO (all in caps IIRC) and then underneath in little letters "a star wars story". Yeah right, most people would jump at it if it said "STAR WARS something something" but in this case the title star wars is undermined IMO.

Another thing going for DP2 is the fact that it got massive backlash for Domino choice, the reshoots, etc. A lot of aspects happened behind the scenes, this might hurt the DP2 film and benefit IW.

Agreed!

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#23 Posted by Amcu (16903 posts) - - Show Bio
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#24 Posted by Amcu (16903 posts) - - Show Bio

I was reading on the box office Reddit and apparently from what I've read it seems that someone with insider information thought that Infinity War was pretty close to locked to beat TFA Opening record.

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/25876-avengers-infinite-money-over-300m-ow-war-club/?page=6

They even seem to think it could do $300 million opening. If that happens than $2 billion is definitely on the table.

I still don't think I buy it though. I think this is a I'll believe it when I see it situation.

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#25 Edited by TonyMartial (9718 posts) - - Show Bio

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

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#26 Posted by The_living_tribunal_24 (6566 posts) - - Show Bio

£4

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#27 Posted by GIliad_ (6654 posts) - - Show Bio

I've got a feeling it's not going to be topping the box office tbh

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#28 Posted by Superhero24 (4766 posts) - - Show Bio

I say it will be the highest grossing MCU movie. It will make at least 1.6 billion. I put it's best beating TFA, but I dont see it overtaking Titanic.

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#29 Posted by LilDapDap (24 posts) - - Show Bio

For the simple fact we're having a legit disscusion rather A:IW will beat Star Wars...Marvel is the king!!!

There's no second place in comics.

My prediction:

1.7bil

95% RT

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#30 Edited by deltahuman (4985 posts) - - Show Bio

If the movie is bad to average then it will gross somewhere around $1.2-1.3 billion (unlikely to happen given the track record of the directors and the studio).

If its good but not exceptional then it will end it's run at around $1.5-$1.6 billion (cound happen specially because there are concerns about fitting in too many characters inside a 150 minute movie and also the fact that there could probably be too many subplots and the movie consequently becomes extremely fast paced).

If its exceptionally good, like the greatest superhero movie ever made or attempted then I see it reaching or getting close to $2 billion (this could happen too given how hyped it is and how good it looks and the director's track record).

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#31 Posted by Amcu (16903 posts) - - Show Bio

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

Inflation would help. On top of that I believe I read somewhere(I don't remember where) that the actual maximum capacity that a theater can hold is a good bit above $300 million. Though its almost impossible to come close to that due to the fact that there is almost no way that every seat, in every theater, in every city/county on every showing would be full. But theoretically I'm pretty sure it can go well above TFA.

On top of that Infinity War is leading The Force Awakens in unaided awareness and first choice. Source.

In unaided awareness, that portion of survey-taking where the person being polled brings up a movie title without being prompted, Infinity War has a huge 42, a score that’s higher than The Force Awakens (36, $247.9M), Black Panther (35, $202M), The Last Jedi (35, $220M), Jurassic World (24, $209M) and Avengers (26, $207M).

Other strong indicators: First choice where Infinity War has an enormous 38 which is also higher than The Force Awakens (22, $247.9M), Black Panther (25, $202M), The Last Jedi (23, $220M), and Jurassic World (17, $209M), and Avengers (21, $207M).

I'm pretty sure these are the highest numbers ever for a film.

I'm not saying that I think it will make $300 million domestic opening weekend. I'm not even saying that it will beat or even be really close to The Force Awakens. I'm just noting some positive signs for the film. I was one of the people who thought that Black Panther wouldn't do anything close to what it has. Being honest even when I saw people saying stuff like $150 million opening weekend I kinda thought they where just being fanboys. But I was dead wrong.

And while I don't think Infinity War will open to such high numbers and I think that people are still somewhat over predicting it. I'm beginning to see a pathway to some of the numbers that people have throwing around. I just think it has a shot. A long shot for sure but a shot none the less.

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#32 Posted by RBT (28522 posts) - - Show Bio

Hard to say at this point. I am predicting somewhere between 1.5b-1.8b. 2b is almost impossible going by current pre sales numbers.

Online
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#33 Posted by Caesar16 (192 posts) - - Show Bio

I think it's gonna cross 2 billion worldwide.

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#34 Posted by deactivated-5c531e53b02be (3640 posts) - - Show Bio

Considering BP broke a 1 Billion I can't see IW making less than 2 Billion.

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#35 Posted by SuperHulk24 (534 posts) - - Show Bio

I think it has a shot at 2 billion. It has all the momentum and hype built up. If its good and passes TFA is world wide box office it will show that the MCU has passed Star Wars as the top franchise.

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#36 Posted by CosmicMuffin (478 posts) - - Show Bio

Assuming it gets a $235 million opening weekend and a 3.0x multiplier (which is honestly not likely, you cannot really predict legs), it will finish with around $700 million domestic.

Age of Ultron made $940 million in foreign territories and we can assume that it will go up for this film. My guess is $1.0-$1.1 billion foreign for a worldwide total of $1.7-$1.8 billion.

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#37 Posted by Asgaard (4518 posts) - - Show Bio
@amcu said:

@asgaard Any updated predictions?

Nope... I am trying to avoid a lot of data about this movie because of the spoilers... Seems to be one of those movies that you will enjoy more knowing only the basics of the trailers and the premise, and the comic book bubble just doesn't know when to stop posting stuff about this movies.

Still, regardless the reception scenario, i don't see this movie doing anything better than Star Wars 7 in the domestic market and even if it can overcome the mentioned Star Wars movie in the international markets (like Furious 7 did) that gap will not be enough for the insanity that is to make $2B, specially in such a competitive window.

Also, i got the impression that this movie could have some fan backlash that can affect the long term legs.

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#38 Posted by Amcu (16903 posts) - - Show Bio
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#39 Posted by GeraltsOpinion (414 posts) - - Show Bio

Everyone's favorite character is in the movie but Hawkeye. It's gonna be massive.

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#40 Posted by DrPepperMan (6288 posts) - - Show Bio

At the very, very, very least 1.1B.

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#41 Posted by Thor_Parker82 (16368 posts) - - Show Bio
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#42 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

And yet, a Black Panther movie, that the general populace was completely oblivious to the existence of a year before it came out, did $202 million opening weekend, which is 82% of TFA. Infinity War definitely has a real shot at the opening weekend record. My prediction is $265 million OW.

My prediction for over all domestic take is $678 million, which will likely be below Black Panther (which will probably end at around $685 million), and my prediction for world wide is 1.85 billion.

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#43 Posted by madcrusher (293 posts) - - Show Bio

@byrd42 said:
@tonymartial said:

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

And yet, a Black Panther movie, that the general populace was completely oblivious to the existence of a year before it came out, did $202 million opening weekend, which is 82% of TFA. Infinity War definitely has a real shot at the opening weekend record. My prediction is $265 million OW.

My prediction for over all domestic take is $678 million, which will likely be below Black Panther (which will probably end at around $685 million), and my prediction for world wide is 1.85 billion.

Agreed on your analysis people here think this will gross 700 million domestic too easily are fooling themselves. You need crazy all time legs to do that, see FA and Avatar.

It's def beating BP overseas. I think it gets 1 bill overseas.

Most of IW box office will be front loaded. It's week 3-6 legs will be killed by Solo and Deadpool.

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#44 Posted by FullMetalEmprah (4735 posts) - - Show Bio

If it didn't beat 2 billion I'd be surprised honestly.

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#45 Posted by WhyZoSerious (1784 posts) - - Show Bio

2,2 billions.

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#46 Posted by byrd42 (793 posts) - - Show Bio

@byrd42 said:
@tonymartial said:

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

And yet, a Black Panther movie, that the general populace was completely oblivious to the existence of a year before it came out, did $202 million opening weekend, which is 82% of TFA. Infinity War definitely has a real shot at the opening weekend record. My prediction is $265 million OW.

My prediction for over all domestic take is $678 million, which will likely be below Black Panther (which will probably end at around $685 million), and my prediction for world wide is 1.85 billion.

Agreed on your analysis people here think this will gross 700 million domestic too easily are fooling themselves. You need crazy all time legs to do that, see FA and Avatar.

It's def beating BP overseas. I think it gets 1 bill overseas.

Most of IW box office will be front loaded. It's week 3-6 legs will be killed by Solo and Deadpool.

For sure Deadpool and Solo will seriously hurt it's legs, resulting in a $70-100M loss world wide. All avoidable if Disney had saved Solo for July or August. Dead Pool likely would have came out in June if not for Solo being scheduled right before it.

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#47 Posted by madcrusher (293 posts) - - Show Bio

@byrd42 said:
@madcrusher said:
@byrd42 said:
@tonymartial said:

@amcu: Thats impossible I think. Star Wars Force Awakens opened in nearly every theatre in the world, had way more hype (Decade without a star wars film), 24/7 showings, pretty much all packed and made 247m on its OW.

And yet, a Black Panther movie, that the general populace was completely oblivious to the existence of a year before it came out, did $202 million opening weekend, which is 82% of TFA. Infinity War definitely has a real shot at the opening weekend record. My prediction is $265 million OW.

My prediction for over all domestic take is $678 million, which will likely be below Black Panther (which will probably end at around $685 million), and my prediction for world wide is 1.85 billion.

Agreed on your analysis people here think this will gross 700 million domestic too easily are fooling themselves. You need crazy all time legs to do that, see FA and Avatar.

It's def beating BP overseas. I think it gets 1 bill overseas.

Most of IW box office will be front loaded. It's week 3-6 legs will be killed by Solo and Deadpool.

For sure Deadpool and Solo will seriously hurt it's legs, resulting in a $70-100M loss world wide. All avoidable if Disney had saved Solo for July or August. Dead Pool likely would have came out in June if not for Solo being scheduled right before it.

Agreed I still never understood why Disney wanted to release Solo in May. They had December Star Wars event month on lock. They are starting to eat into their profits by stacking their films next to one another.

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#48 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio

@madcrusher: @byrd42: why would Solo and Deadpool hurt it's legs? The amount of apathy for Solo is ridiculous - most general audiences don't even know the movie exists and the trailer didn't even reach 5 million views in the first 24 hours (for reference, Rogue One trailer had 15 million views within the same amount of time). The production has been a disaster, with half of the film being reshot, and rumours of the lead actor needing an acting coach. Most people don't want the movie and have written it off as a flop. Especially if it isn't good, it will barely cause any harm on IW.

The same goes for Deadpool 2 (to a lesser extent). The movie is undergoing reshoots with rumours of the movie being a disaster. If the movie is good, I can see it causing a marginal impact on Infinity War, but if it's as bad as the trailers suggest, Infinity War should be fine.

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#49 Edited by TonyMartial (9718 posts) - - Show Bio

@theamazingspidey: Its a star wars film though. Its making 100m+ dom on its ow for sure dude.

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#50 Posted by TheAmazingSpidey (17641 posts) - - Show Bio

@rbt said:

Hard to say at this point. I am predicting somewhere between 1.5b-1.8b. 2b is almost impossible going by current pre sales numbers.

Not to say it will make 2 billion, but isn't the opening weekend projected to be The Force Awakens-level? If that movie topped 2 billion, then why would it be so impossible for Infinity War to do so assuming it opens similarly? (not to say it will make 2b, just responding to your point about the pre sales).