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#1 Edited by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

I understand many people on this site do not care about awards, but we should be happy that they are finally starting to recognize the genre. Even if you do not like the movie that gets nominated, still be happy that others found enjoyment in it and celebrate it for the recognition of the superhero genre in general.

Below are my predictions based off previous years winners/nominees,Oscar prediction analysts (websites including Goldderby and Indiewire), and my opinions.

My Possibility Categories:

Likely - A nomination is near guaranteed due to the amount of discussion the aspects receive and how relevant they are in Oscar prediction discussions

Possible - Almost a front-runner, but not enough discussion to guarantee a spot.

Black Panther:

Likely nominations:

  • Best Costume Design - Ruth Carter (WIN - the costumes were absolutely incredible. Each Wakandan tribe had unique and vibrant costumes that had so much detail. Usually films with big puffy traditional dresses win, so this will be a unique win for the category)
  • Best Hairstyling and Makeup - Joel Harlow, Camille Friend and Ken Diaz (May lose to Vice)
  • Best Production Design - Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart (May lose to The Favourite)
  • Best Original Song, "All the Stars" - Kendrick Lamar ft. SZA (Will likely lose to A Star is Born)
  • Best Original Score - Ludwig Görannson (A well-deserved front-runner. The African elements - including the percussion and rap were so unique to a modern blockbuster, and really represented African culture successfully. It will be hard for the Oscars to pass this one up)
  • Best Picture - Kevin Feige (It is no doubt at the bottom of the 10 that will be nominated. Has little to no chance of winning, but nomination is basically guaranteed)
    • There is no denying that this is happening. It is among every single list I have viewed by professional Oscar analysts, has a whopping 88% metacritic score which is on par with or better than previous Best Picture winners, represents African American culture behind of and in front of the camera - which has been severely lacking at the Oscars, and was a literal cultural phenomenon. No matter your opinion on the film, Black Panther will become the first Superhero film to be nominated for Best Picture.

Possible Nominations:

  • Best Supporting Actor - Michael B. Jordan (He will either be the bottom of the 5 nominated or won't make it at all. On every list I view, he is either at the bottom 5 or so close to making it. Also people are going crazy for Killmonger and Jordan's performance)
  • Best Cinematography - Rachel Morrison (Morrison became the first woman to be nominated for Cinematography for her work in last year's "Mudbound". She definitely does not disappoint in this film. The establishing shots of Wakanda, the 180 degree Camera turn when Killmonger takes the throne to represent how Wakanda's morals are about to take a 180, the ancestral plane scenes, the action scenes in the Casino... All shot wonderfully)
  • Best Sound Design - Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker (Not rare for blockbusters to be nominated in this category and among many lists)
  • Best Sound Mixing - Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin (Same for Sound Design)
  • Best Director - Ryan Coogler (Every list I view he never makes it into the top 5, but he is always so close)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay - Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole (Same thing with best Director. Close to top 5, slight chance it will make the final cut)
  • Best Film Editing - Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman (Do not know how to really predict this category, but I have seen it among the top 10 lists so it is possible)

Some people may be surprised by how many categories Black Panther is a contender in. Let me just say, I am surprised as well. The amount of Oscar buzz this film is getting is just unbelievable. It will no doubt gain the most nominations for any MCU film (Iron Man and Guardians of the Galaxy are currently in first and only received two nominations).

Avengers: Infinity War

Likely nominations:

  • Best Visual Effects - Russel Earl, Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken and Daniel Sudick (Might lose to Ready Player One. If the Academy is looking for more lowkey effects - like when Ex Machina won in 2015, then Annihilation and First Man could be contenders. With that said, this is probably Marvel's strongest chance at a VFX win out of all 20 of their movies)
  • Best Sound Design - (Will likely lose to A Quiet Place. It's a shame because the sound design on the Infinity Gauntlet was incredible)

Possible nominations:

  • Best Sound Mixing - (The sound design is much more impressive. A Sound Mixing nod is a possibility though due to the sheer scale of the action scenes)
  • Best Cinematography - Trent Opalach (Among many lists I have seen, but Black Panther is always higher so if any Marvel film is getting a Best Cinematography nomination, its Black Panther)

It's a shame that my favorite Marvel film will only get technical nods at the Oscars. I think the Russo's deserve a best Director(s) nomination because they had to direct which is debatably one the biggest films in history. They had to juggle so many characters, tones, storylines, and they actually delivered. The amount of work they put into the film as directors was probably more than any director had to in a long while (assumption, I could very clearly be wrong). An adapted screenplay nomination would also feel earned. But they are not making any prediction lists, so there goes that.

Deadpool 2:

Possible nominations:

  • Best Original Song, "Ashes" - Celine Dion (Will likely be beaten by A Star is Born)

I think it's funny that of all movies, a Deadpool movie has a high chance of receiving a Best Original Song nomination. Who doesn't want to see Celine Dion perform on stage for DEADPOOL. It will be a riot. Please let it happen.

Ant-Man and the Wasp:

Possible nominations:

  • Best Visual Effects - (The visual effects in this film were honestly solid. Nothing felt fake, and there was not an overabundance of CGI, which the Academy tends to not like. Everything felt practical, besides the Quantum Realm which still looked great. It has a solid chance of a nomination, the only issue is the category is a bit crowded this year)

Venom:

none lol

Aquaman:

Aquaman is clearly DC, but based on the trailer I won't be surprised if it can snag a few technical nods such as VFX and Costume Design. But once again, it's very crowded this year and I don't know if Aquaman will have the time to push for awards.

Recap:

Black Panther: 6 nominations - including Best Picture, 1 win (Costume Design), and 7 other possible nomination categories

Avengers: Infinity War: 2 nominations, 2 other possible categories

Deadpool 2: 1 nomination

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 1 possible nomination

This looks to be the best year since 2008 for superhero films at the Oscars. I know many think Black Panther does not deserve the praise, but just be happy that people found cultural importance in it and enjoyed it so much. Also be happy for Kevin Feige - who has produced and planned out all 20 MCU films - will finally have his name shown on the big screen at the Oscars for one of the most prestigious awards known to man - Best Picture. This man deserves it. Would have rather have him up there representing Infinity War, but I am fine with Black Panther too.

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#2 Posted by LEGACY6364 (7408 posts) - - Show Bio

The MCU has done nothing to deserve an Oscar. There are too many incredible Indie Films out there that surpass any Marvel film.

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#3 Posted by TheInsufferable (2582 posts) - - Show Bio

The MCU has done nothing to deserve an Oscar. There are too many incredible Indie Films out there that surpass any Marvel film.

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#5 Posted by Michaelbn (1889 posts) - - Show Bio

You're hailing pop culture disney stuff, right??? By the way after 2010's I cannot take Oscar seriously, since they seemed so biased and unknowledgeable, yet MCU is nothing compared to tons of indie films.

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#6 Posted by DammeFavour (8039 posts) - - Show Bio

Not happening

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#7 Posted by Magian (150428 posts) - - Show Bio

I am ok with the MCU being nominated in the technical categories but I don't think it should be included in the bigger ones.

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#8 Edited by TheInsufferable (2582 posts) - - Show Bio

Loath as I am to say it, if Suicide Squad can win an Oscar, it wouldn't be surprising if MCU got one in the little categories.

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#9 Posted by mrmonster (13574 posts) - - Show Bio

@legacy6364 said:

The MCU has done nothing to deserve an Oscar. There are too many incredible Indie Films out there that surpass any Marvel film.

They don't deserve any major categories like best picture or best director, but they definitely deserve to be at least considered for lesser categories like visual effects, costume design, etc.

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#10 Posted by mrmonster (13574 posts) - - Show Bio

Loath as I am to say it, if Suicide Squad can win an Oscar, it wouldn't be surprising if MCU got one in the little categories.

In their defense, they definitely deserved it. Say what you want about the movie as a whole, but the makeup (especially for Killer Croc) was perfection.

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#11 Posted by mrmonster (13574 posts) - - Show Bio

I think you're overestimating how Black Panther will do. The Academy has made their bias against superhero movies clear time and time again, they're not going to change that because for once, Marvel included black people. At best it'll get technical nominations.

For the most, I mostly agree with, especially Deadpool 2 getting a best original song nomination. Honestly, I could see it winning.

Based on the trailer, I'm sure Aquaman will at least be considered for best visual effects. I doubt it'll win, but I'm fairly confident it'll be nominated.

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#12 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@legacy6364: @theinsufferable: @michaelbn: @DammeFavour:

You people are all in denial. I presented the facts, and you guys say the same shit. "Marvel doesn't deserve it", "Not happening", etc.

Like, it is actually pretty hilarious. Here's a list of expert's predictions:

Expert predictions

There are 23 experts listed on that site, and 19/23 included Black Panther in the Best Picture nominees. 19/23 - Can you even realize how high that is? And when all of them are in agreement on one thing, you know it is happening.

They also have a list showing their website editor predictions:

Editor Predictions

Damn, all 9/9 of them think Black Panther is getting a Best Picture nomination. That isn't credible though. These people have only been predicting it for ya know, years now.

Here is a list of User predictions. The website claims that these users have had the highest accuracy with wins in the past 2 years, and are the most "credible users":

User Predictions

Wow, 19/24 people all believe Black Panther will be nominated for Best Picture.

Do you get the point? The majority of people do not care if a few people on Comic Vine don't recognize the quality/importance of these films. I respect all of your "opinions", but stating an opinion does not refute the facts. The facts are that Black Panther is a major awards contender. It's not credible to say "There are many more indie films that surpass Marvel films". Alright, I just provided expert's lists that include the Indie films in the list. And what do you know, Black Panther is still among them.

If you want to view the rest of these people's predictions, many of them also included Michael B Jordan in Best Actor (but not a majority, that's why I included him in the "possible" category, some for Cinematography, all of them in Costume Design and Production Design).

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#13 Posted by LEGACY6364 (7408 posts) - - Show Bio
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#14 Edited by Heatforce (5494 posts) - - Show Bio

I can see MCU winning technical categories. But there chance to win an Oscar for the big ones was Winter Soldier, so far anyway. Then again if the Oscars are anything like the MTV awards this year then smh.

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#15 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

Why comment in a forum when you know once the evidence becomes too strong, you're just going to provide half ass rebuttals like this. I understand though, there is no rebuttal to be had.

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#16 Edited by ANTHP2000 (23873 posts) - - Show Bio

And I'll say it here too: Captain America: The Winter Soldier deserved nominations, quite possibly in the major categories.

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#17 Edited by The_Badman (2725 posts) - - Show Bio

No. Just no. Oscars are not biased against superhero movies. They just choose the best movies released, which most superhero films are clearly not.

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#18 Posted by Michaelbn (1889 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin:

LOL, whatever they're, they're not experts.

There's a pattern in choosing best pictures in awards and go and check those out, Oscar is made out of bunch of oldies who like depressing yet realistic and non-fictional movies and add those to nominations and then winning. BP doesn't set right with their standards.

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#19 Edited by MarvelandDCfan24 (6751 posts) - - Show Bio

Foolery

Marvel has not done anything to deserve an Oscar there are are far to many soild films this year while BP wasnt even that good of a movie

I honestly think IW will get one for IW unless Aquaman is insane for VFX

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#20 Posted by TheSpartanB345T (3826 posts) - - Show Bio

The MCU has done nothing to deserve an Oscar. There are too many incredible Indie Films out there that surpass any Marvel film.

Foolery

Marvel has not done anything to deserve an Oscar there are are far to many soild films this year while BP wasnt even that good of a movie

I honestly think IW will get one for IW unless Aquaman is insane for VFX

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#21 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

Foolery

Marvel has not done anything to deserve an Oscar there are are far to many soild films this year while BP wasnt even that good of a movie

I honestly think IW will get one for IW unless Aquaman is insane for VFX

Like I have already said multiple times, the far too many "solid films" this year have also been included in prediction lists. Black Panther is still among the top. What you need to realize is just because you do not think its a good movie, does not mean critics (which actually matter in this case) do not. The Academy is not going to not nominate Black Panther because someone named marvelanddcfan24 doesn't like a movie. It is what they think. And it is among many expert predictors Best Picture lists. Your opinion has no affect on what is going to happen. Also realize that I am not only stating my opinion, I am listing what others who are knowledgeable in this topic think.

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#22 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin:

LOL, whatever they're, they're not experts.

There's a pattern in choosing best pictures in awards and go and check those out, Oscar is made out of bunch of oldies who like depressing yet realistic and non-fictional movies and add those to nominations and then winning. BP doesn't set right with their standards.

They are not experts, yet they are apart of one of the most reliable Oscar prediction sites and have been predicting for multiple years now? But your opinion, and random person on Comic vine is somehow more reliable. Makes sense.

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#23 Posted by MarvelandDCfan24 (6751 posts) - - Show Bio
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#24 Edited by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

And I'll say it here too: Captain America: The Winter Soldier deserved nominations, quite possibly in the major categories.

It deserved a lot more than just a mere Best Visual Effects nomination.

Unfortunately it's just one of those great movies where all the aspects were good, but not great enough for the Oscars.

Nothing was unique about the costume design, cinematography, makeup, acting, music, etc. That right there eliminates a lot of opportunity for nominations. The best part of the movie was the writing, direction and action sequences, but even then there are only 5 movies that can make it into the nomination list. And there is not even a "Best action movie" or "Best choreography" category. It's pretty understandable that it didn't make the cut

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#25 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

I can see MCU winning technical categories. But there chance to win an Oscar for the big ones was Winter Soldier, so far anyway. Then again if the Oscars are anything like the MTV awards this year then smh.

Marvel's best chance to win an oscar was not with "The Winter Soldier". Critics loved it, but not enough. And it didn't excel in any film aspect that would secure it a nomination, other than Visual Effects.

Black Panther is receiving much more discussion than The Winter Soldier ever did for the big categories.

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#26 Posted by loyngulpany (2284 posts) - - Show Bio

Relax man. We already know the Oscars are biased against a lot of genres and that's not gonna change anytime soon.

Remember that both the Blade Runner movies didn't got nominated for Best Picture. Gandhi won over E.T. for some reason even though ET is the better film because they would rather prefer a realistic movie than a movie about aliens.

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#27 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

Why comment in the first place when you won't even provide a convincing rebuttal? It shows immaturity and makes it look like you have no idea what you are talking about. You have failed to provide any sort of evidence, other than your opinion. So in that case, i'll tag you in a few months when Black Panther does receive a nomination for Best Picture.

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#28 Posted by MarvelandDCfan24 (6751 posts) - - Show Bio
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#30 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

Relax man. We already know the Oscars are biased against a lot of genres and that's not gonna change anytime soon.

Remember that both the Blade Runner movies didn't got nominated for Best Picture.

Sites including Goldderby did not include Blade Runner 2049 in the Best Picture prediction list. Many of the experts on that site were talking about how it is going to get overlooked, and they did not include it on their lists. There were very few who did include it.

Black Panther has made multiple lists. Out of 54 lists of reliable people, 47 of them have included Black Panther on the Best Picture list. That is the overwhelming majority. Something Blade Runner 2049 did not have.

Source

Source

Source

It's surprising for sure. Blade Runner 2049 was better than Black Panther in many ways. But we cannot let our opinions blind us. We have to look at the facts. And the facts are that Black Panther is receiving so much Oscar discussions, from sources including Variety, Goldderby, Indiewire, Awardscircuit, etc, that it is inevitable that it will receive nominations. Logan barely made any lists last year, and it even snagged a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. The academy is warming up to Superhero films, and this will be the year

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#31 Edited by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@marvelanddcfan24 said:

@cosmicmuffin: I'm just not in the mood to respond to foolery

That means you couldn't give two shits about your side of the argument. If mine was such foolery, you would want to provide even the slightest evidence to convince me, but you keep failing to do so.

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#32 Posted by MarvelandDCfan24 (6751 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: I really dont give a crap what you think teaching a wall general physics would be an easier and more enjoyable endeavor than engaging in something pointless as this with someone such as yourself

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#33 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@marvelanddcfan24:

I’m laughing so hard right now.

The amount of time it would have taken you to provide one source, one link or anything to prove your side of the argument would have been shorter than all the shit you just typed.

I’m a pointless human? For being passionate in something? Isn’t that why we all came to this site? You have no idea how to argue

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#34 Posted by MarvelandDCfan24 (6751 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: there is no argument here this is all subjective and if you are really passionate about what movies win awards that's pretty sad

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#35 Edited by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@marvelanddcfan24:

I love the art of film. That’s what I am choosing to study for a future career. Obviously I am passionate about this.

You have no room to talk. You said you don’t want to engage in a “pointless discussion”, yet I checked your profile and there’s many of those all amongst your feed.

“Youtubers have been claiming MCU Thanos is right, what’s your opinion on them?” Wow, what a very non pointless thread.

If you are able to engage in these discussions and provide your input, no reason you should be so hesitant to do so here.

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#36 Posted by MarvelandDCfan24 (6751 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: dude get a grip I've been trolling you this entire time

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#37 Posted by loyngulpany (2284 posts) - - Show Bio

@marvelanddcfan24: Clearly you're just a troll who can't take opinions. You're pathetic as usual

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#38 Edited by loyngulpany (2284 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: Logan and The Dark Knight already proved that the Oscars don't like to nominate superhero movies for Best Picture. Sci-Fi and Fantasy rarely get nominated but they are always a strong contender for visual effects. Comedy and horror were also rare to win picture. IIRC The only comedy movies that won were It Happened One Night, Annie Hall, Tom Jones, The Artist and others.

Remember 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Shining and The Empire Strikes Back didn't got nominated for Best Picture

There are already a lot of Oscar upsets in Oscar history. Here are some examples:

Dances With Wolves winning Best Picture over Goodfellas

The Best Years Of Our Lives winning Best Picture over It's A Wonderful Life

In The Heat Of Night winning Best Picture over The Graduate. Cool Hand Luke wasn't even nominated

Titanic winning Best Picture over LA Confidential

Forrest Gump winning Best Picture over The Shawshank Redemption

Both Chaplin movies City Lights and Modern Times didn't got nominated for picture

Stanley Kubrick, Orson Welles and Alfred Hitchcock not winning a Best Director award

How Green Was My Valley winning Best Picture over Citizen Kane

Shakespeare In Love winning Best Picture over Saving Private Ryan

Witness winning Best Original Screenplay over Back To The Future

I could go on and on mentioning all the biggest Oscar upsets. I have nothing against Marvel but I don't consider Black Panther as a BP contender. As I said, I respect your opinion because movies are totally subjective. Everyone will have their own favorite

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#39 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@loyngulpany:

Thanks for being respectful.

I agree, there have been multiple oscar upsets in the past.

But to me, Black Panther is just too widely included in people’s prediction lists. They aren’t fanboys either, they are on sites who have been predicting for years.

I also want to say that I don’t really even adore Black Panther that much. It’s pretty good. Overhyped? Yeah. But I can’t deny the amount of praise it’s getting. More than any other superhero film. Critics have rated it higher on Metacritic, RT and on the RT top critics score than Logan and TDK. And it has cultural appropriation. That’s a huge bonus. Not saying I think it’s fair, i’m just here to discuss the chances. And I think the chances are high

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#40 Posted by loyngulpany (2284 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: Yeah the Oscars will nominate it for Picture I think. Lol

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#41 Posted by loyngulpany (2284 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: It's strange that a lot of the sites you mentioned were reliable but they mentioned BP more than BR 2049. Lol

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#42 Posted by Michaelbn (1889 posts) - - Show Bio

@loyngulpany: you see? you said it all, but @cosmicmuffin is totally biased, BP was very good better than junks like wonder feminist, Guardians of forced comedy and infinity trailer for a another movie. BP did things right but it's not even comparable to likes of Logan and TWS let alone The Dark Knight and Spiderman 2 also most of oscar predictions doesn't set right, check it out, people and judges see something in June then a movie came out in November, of course they're gonna remember the latest movie, it's an efficent tactic. I guess that matpat guy in film theory channel made something about this, I recommend you all need to see it.

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#43 Posted by CosmicMuffin (460 posts) - - Show Bio

@michaelbn:

I don’t like Black Panther more than Logan and the Dark Knight. I’m talking about what the critics think.

I am not biased because I am stating facts

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#44 Edited by Michaelbn (1889 posts) - - Show Bio

@cosmicmuffin: And critics either being paid by Disney or they're just a bunch of teens without any knowledge about movies. Again BP is great and I liked it myself, but you really think for the next few years you're still gonna watch it yourself?? There's not any honest critics rather than peoples like you,me and anyone else. Just a movie being very good doesn't mean it's gonna win something, but don't take the so called "Academy" seriously, look for something like those european awards, since they're not biased like american ones.