I understand many people on this site do not care about awards, but we should be happy that they are finally starting to recognize the genre. Even if you do not like the movie that gets nominated, still be happy that others found enjoyment in it and celebrate it for the recognition of the superhero genre in general.
Below are my predictions based off previous years winners/nominees,Oscar prediction analysts (websites including Goldderby and Indiewire), and my opinions.
My Possibility Categories:
Likely - A nomination is near guaranteed due to the amount of discussion the aspects receive and how relevant they are in Oscar prediction discussions
Possible - Almost a front-runner, but not enough discussion to guarantee a spot.
- Best Costume Design - Ruth Carter (WIN - the costumes were absolutely incredible. Each Wakandan tribe had unique and vibrant costumes that had so much detail. Usually films with big puffy traditional dresses win, so this will be a unique win for the category)
- Best Hairstyling and Makeup - Joel Harlow, Camille Friend and Ken Diaz (May lose to Vice)
- Best Production Design - Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart (May lose to The Favourite)
- Best Original Song, "All the Stars" - Kendrick Lamar ft. SZA (Will likely lose to A Star is Born)
- Best Original Score - Ludwig Görannson (A well-deserved front-runner. The African elements - including the percussion and rap were so unique to a modern blockbuster, and really represented African culture successfully. It will be hard for the Oscars to pass this one up)
- Best Picture - Kevin Feige (It is no doubt at the bottom of the 10 that will be nominated. Has little to no chance of winning, but nomination is basically guaranteed)
- There is no denying that this is happening. It is among every single list I have viewed by professional Oscar analysts, has a whopping 88% metacritic score which is on par with or better than previous Best Picture winners, represents African American culture behind of and in front of the camera - which has been severely lacking at the Oscars, and was a literal cultural phenomenon. No matter your opinion on the film, Black Panther will become the first Superhero film to be nominated for Best Picture.
- Best Supporting Actor - Michael B. Jordan (He will either be the bottom of the 5 nominated or won't make it at all. On every list I view, he is either at the bottom 5 or so close to making it. Also people are going crazy for Killmonger and Jordan's performance)
- Best Cinematography - Rachel Morrison (Morrison became the first woman to be nominated for Cinematography for her work in last year's "Mudbound". She definitely does not disappoint in this film. The establishing shots of Wakanda, the 180 degree Camera turn when Killmonger takes the throne to represent how Wakanda's morals are about to take a 180, the ancestral plane scenes, the action scenes in the Casino... All shot wonderfully)
- Best Sound Design - Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker (Not rare for blockbusters to be nominated in this category and among many lists)
- Best Sound Mixing - Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin (Same for Sound Design)
- Best Director - Ryan Coogler (Every list I view he never makes it into the top 5, but he is always so close)
- Best Adapted Screenplay - Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole (Same thing with best Director. Close to top 5, slight chance it will make the final cut)
- Best Film Editing - Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman (Do not know how to really predict this category, but I have seen it among the top 10 lists so it is possible)
Some people may be surprised by how many categories Black Panther is a contender in. Let me just say, I am surprised as well. The amount of Oscar buzz this film is getting is just unbelievable. It will no doubt gain the most nominations for any MCU film (Iron Man and Guardians of the Galaxy are currently in first and only received two nominations).
- Best Visual Effects - Russel Earl, Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken and Daniel Sudick (Might lose to Ready Player One. If the Academy is looking for more lowkey effects - like when Ex Machina won in 2015, then Annihilation and First Man could be contenders. With that said, this is probably Marvel's strongest chance at a VFX win out of all 20 of their movies)
- Best Sound Design - (Will lose to A Quiet Place. It's a shame because the sound design on the Infinity Gauntlet was incredible)
- Best Sound Mixing - (The sound design is much more impressive. A Sound Mixing nod is a possibility though due to the sheer scale of the action scenes)
- Best Cinematography - Trent Opalach (Among many lists I have seen, but Black Panther is always higher so if any Marvel film is getting a Best Cinematography nomination, its Black Panther)
It's a shame that my favorite Marvel film will only get technical nods at the Oscars. I think the Russo's deserve a best Director(s) nomination because they had to direct which is debatably one the biggest films in history. They had to juggle so many characters, tones, storylines, and they actually delivered. The amount of work they put into the film as directors was probably more than any director had to in a long while (assumption, I could very clearly be wrong). An adapted screenplay nomination would also feel earned. But they are not making any prediction lists, so there goes that.
- Best Original Song, "Ashes" - Celine Dion (Will likely be beaten by A Star is Born)
I think it's funny that of all movies, a Deadpool movie has a high chance of receiving a Best Original Song nomination. Who doesn't want to see Celine Dion perform on stage for DEADPOOL. It will be a riot. Please let it happen.
- Best Visual Effects - (The visual effects in this film were honestly solid. Nothing felt fake, and there was not an overabundance of CGI, which the Academy tends to not like. Everything felt practical, besides the Quantum Realm which still looked great. It has a solid chance of a nomination, the only issue is the category is a bit crowded this year)
Aquaman is clearly DC, but based on the trailer I won't be surprised if it can snag a few technical nods such as VFX and Costume Design. But once again, it's very crowded this year and I don't know if Aquaman will have the time to push for awards.
Black Panther: 6 nominations - including Best Picture, 1 win (Costume Design), and 7 other possible nomination categories
Avengers: Infinity War: 2 nominations, 2 other possible categories
Deadpool 2: 1 nomination
Ant-Man and the Wasp: 1 possible nomination
This looks to be the best year since 2008 for superhero films at the Oscars. I know many think Black Panther does not deserve the praise, but just be happy that people found cultural importance in it and enjoyed it so much. Also be happy for Kevin Feige - who has produced and planned out all 20 MCU films - will finally have his name shown on the big screen at the Oscars for one of the most prestigious awards known to man - Best Picture. This man deserves it. Would have rather have him up there representing Infinity War, but I am fine with Black Panther too.