Maybe. Maybe not. Last March who called Parasite for “Best Picture”? Who knew the movie even existed? My point being it’s so early in the year we have no idea what other contenders will be in the mix this winter.
No one's even seen the movie yet. I don't see why it being directed by Villeneuve would somehow = best picture at the Oscars though. Dune seems like a longshot because not only is it sci fi which almost never wins best picture but its an adaption of a book that has already been made into movies/tv shows multiple times.
Impossible to say, but unlikely given prior history. The Academy isn't exactly enamored with Villeneuve, they've snubbed most of his quality films and gave him a pity nomination for Arrival, of all things.