Black Panther Box Office Predictions?

@gonnagetthat:

https://comicvine.gamespot.com/forums/gen-discussion-1/the-2017-cbm-movies-hype-prediction-thread-1840092/?page=1#js-message-17684051

There was also a thread before Homecoming came out where you claimed that your data would have Homecoming making a lower world wide total that GotG2, but I couldn't find that one with a quick Google search and have no desire to waste my time looking for it.

And? How was that inaccurate?

You and a lot of people in this thread seems to forget what current data means, it doesn't include crucial variables like for example critical and audiences reception... And GotG vol 2 reception was not really equal to SM H. right?

Acknowledging what i said, i do accept the argument that GotG franchise appeal in the international market was overrated but with the same reception Guardians 2 would probably make more than SM H. since the last only made something like $15M more.

Now translating some of the described variables to this thread, we just don't know yet B.P. critical and audiences reception, specially in the international markets where everything is a lot more unpredictable and RT isn't a variable beyond the U.K., can you or someone else point why would B.P. make more than Dr. Strange? We know it will deliver in the U.S. but in what range!?! I don't see it making more than $300M and it may very well not do more than $350M (Ant-Man did $339M) in the international markets, its very doubtful that it will deliver like Dr. Strange in Asia...

Now i do want to see B.P. and other comic book movies succeed but i don't see the point to just post random numbers like $1B, without justify why, because different markets have very different variables...

BP is not grossing 1b.

You made an inaccurate prediction.

You and a lot of people in this thread seems to forget what current data means, it doesn't include crucial variables like for example critical and audiences reception... And GotG vol 2 reception was not really equal to SM H. right?

I'm not forgetting anything, I was just taking a jab at you for being wrong, and critically GotG2 has higher ratings than Deadpool. The RT fan ratings on Homecoming are only 1% higher than GotG2. It shouldn't be a huge deal. You do hear a lot of fan complaints about it, but you also hear a lot of fan complaints about Homecoming. You can say that GotG2 would of made more if it was a better movie, but Homecoming also would of made more if it was a better movie.

Acknowledging what i said, i do accept the argument that GotG franchise appeal in the international market was overrated but with the same reception Guardians 2 would probably make more than SM H. since the last only made something like $15M more.

Guardians of the Galaxy is sci fi. Science fiction movies like that are always bigger in the states than international. Other sci fi movies, like Star Wars are good examples of this. TFA shattered the domestic box office record, but didn't take the world record and Rogue One was domestically the highest grossing movie of 2016, but internationally it didn't even beat Civil War. Spider-Man on the other hand was already proven to be a world wide box office smash, with even the poorly received ASM2 making $500 million international. I also wouldn't be surprised if GotG 2 is also beaten by JL and Thor.

@gonnagetthat:

Sorry but if you are not forgetting anything, then you are taking a jab at yourself by not understanding what potential and what current data means, and how that concepts differ from predictions ...

Fans ratings!?! Fan complaints!? (lol) We are talking about box office, right? Yes Cinema Score (that is what matters in terms of audiences reaction) was equal for both movies , but the critical reception was different, it doesn't matter how you spin it.

As for the rest, its true what you said about Star Wars but in a very different scale, it was expected that the comic book genre and Marvel Studios brand could boost Guardians 2 international numbers to at least $500M, it didn't and that is new data...

@gonnagetthat: Dude there's no way to logically think Black Panther will make a billion it will do well in the US but I don't see it taking very well in China it's hard for a movie to hit a billion only 3 have this year Black Panther is not that well known plus he struggles to sell his own comics

It will do well because it has Marvel on it probably top out at 750 tops

More than Justice League

700 to 760 million

I just think its funny how you always seem so proud of yourself every time you are right about a prediction, and you always reference it. You seem to easily forget about the times you're wrong, since you needed me to link it. I was curious to see how you would react when someone points out where you've been wrong. You seem defensive.

You're the one who are trying to spin the reviews to justify your inaccurate guess. For the general audience positive reviews is enough. If a small critical percentage is so important, then wouldn't TFA of performed better than Thor in 2011? Even in the states Thor grossed more than the first Captain America, despite having worse reviews.

I never said $1 billion. My prediction for BP is $700 million.

Too early...way too early. Have to see where Marvel is at closer to the time of release...

Tell that to all female ghostbusters...

700.

It won't do well in China, though.

700-850m

including my 20 bucks

Why not?

@gonnagetthat:

There was no need to escalate this to the personal level, you seem to give a lot of importance to Asgaard's internet account and its posts, and you shouldn't, i am just a comic book fan like you and the other users in this site... By the content of your last post there is no point for me to waste more time here...

BP and WW is natural diversity. GB was forced diversity that angered the GB fan base.

@justoneshot: I don’t even like using the term PC because it’s become a slur. If I am praising something for being inclusive I just say it’s well balanced with casting.

Now I remember why it won’t do well in China. The Chinese people in China are quite racist against blacks. They made Disney take the black guy off the Star Wars posters....

They don't care much for the blacks.

Alot

Bump.

@rbt: And I quote you "BP is not grossing 1b." ;-)

And your earlier quote on Justice League film: "Worst case scenario, it'll make a billion."

I made the same predictions too. Looks like it isn't easy to predict these stuff.

@theamazingspidey: about time you did that

@yassassin: "They don't care much for the blacks."

Well you were right.

https://comicvine.gamespot.com/forums/gen-discussion-1/chinese-audiences-gave-mixed-reviews-for-black-pan-1935936/#102

You were wrong lol.

@godsaveusall: I think the biggest problem for me is I can't really judge the hype of a movie on US social media since I'm not a part of it and I usually base it on articles by different websites, which can be just plain misleading.

It's crazy I'm suprised Marvel really cannot do wrong

Boy looking back at some of these predictions, definitely hasn't aged well. Those who said 500 million tops?

Really took us all by surprise....

Ahahaha.

Now this is funny

Yep

I never accounted for the movie being so damn politicized

WAKANDAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!! In the billion dollar club

Ok so it's gonna make 1.2 -1.3 billion because it's politicized and not actually good. Ok whatever man.

You clearly underestimated it for a variety of reasons, one of which you thought people would be so racist they would skip it. But now your saying it's racial /political implications are why it's doing well. Can't be both!!

Why can't it simply be good and people liked the message and themes it conveyed hence the repeated viewings and strong week to week holds?

Yes.

Avatar is still the highest/2nd highest grossing movie of all time. Are you gonna call that a good movie deserving of it's rank? Or was the tech the main draw? C'mon. I think the same of Avatar, but replace tech with a sort of cultural/political explosion of black goodwill.

Yeah, I did think that racism, or more accurately a disinterest in a "black" movie, would factor in a bit, bar it from reaching GoTG levels of success. I estimated $650 million, which is high end average for a debut marvel movie, so don't think I underestimated it because of racism, which is what I think you're implying.

Eh, why can't it be as easy as you want? Because, it's not. Simple as that. We're looking at it from two different angles, I guess. And to clarify, i'm not nitpicking, trying to find any way to diminish the success of the film. That doesn't benefit me in any way. I just call it how I see it.

I do think the movie was politicized. From the very onset it was treated like some huge accomplishment, the first black super hero movie, the first super hero movie to honor African heritage and so forth. Athletes/Celebrities paid for inner city kids, and black kids in general, to watch the movie, bought out theaters, there were news stories, articles about the importance of the film, tweets and gram post about black pride and so forth. Hell, this is anecdotal, but I know multiple people who paid to see the movie just to support black movies, straight from their lips. I also know others who paid to see while not even really knowing what the MCU is. I even know a couple people who paid for their 4th time to see but walked out within 30 min to join me at a kickback. I mean, c'mon, the vast majority of this website doesn't even think it's the best movie, yet the amount of praise it's getting from Hollywood and news outlets would have you think it's Oscar material. So, if you don't think this movie was politicized than you just don't want to look. And that's ok. Im not trying to convince you.

@madcrusher:

Thats many upset fans go to excuse. It was "politicized."

@buttersdaman000

Many on Comicvine don't think the film was good? Okay. Nice. Comicvine doesn't represent the majority of people in real life sadly. Many people here in NY(and not just Black people) loved the film and said it was one of the best MCU films. Hell, many people around the web who claim they are not into superhero films(again not just Black people) said it was among the best MCU films. Also the things you describe such as people raising money for kids has been done many times for other films. Your point?

Point blank. Many of you guys on Comicvine don't watch Black films and think any Black films are "politicized." Yeah, I went there. If you guys watch Black films then you would know that the Medea films by the BIGGEST Black producer in Hollywood are constantly bashed/ridiculed in media and among critics. The recent slave film Birth of a Nation which the producer was hoping it being "revolutionary" with a slave uprising was a box office, was damned by critics and the media and Nate Parker lynched by the media(whether you believed he was guilty or not). You have the recent Spike Lee film "Chiraq" that was also damned by critics. Straight Outta Compton which was a box office success and praised by reviewers hardly got VERY LITTLE if ANY Oscar nominations. Red Tails a historic film about the BLACK Tuskegee air men bombed in box office and reviews. And then Blade... While not a Black majority film tho a Black main lead(Wesley Snipes) and a comic film got mediocre reviews and mediocre box office. None of those films were "politicized" and I can go on. And I will. The RECENT Wrinkle in Time film(Starring Oprah of all people!) which BOMBED in box office and reviews.

The movie(Black Panther) is celebrated in the media because it OFFICIAL BROKE MANY Hollywood myths! That is Black films especially a Black Superhero film NOT being able to sell. Especially overseas. Instead this film did more than that. No it wasn't some silly crap about some PC agenda that made this film a success, its that fact that many of you forget the STAR power behind it such as Ryan Coogler, freaking Lupita, Michael B Jordan, the actor that played in Get Out, Angela Basset, etc,etc. I mean its not hard to figure out especially with Coogler who now has 3 homeruns. I mean good grief. And... Black Panther IS the first super hero movie to honor African heritage. What was even your point with that one? And yes one can argue that it is an importantly film because since it refuted those Hollywood myths, its shows that diversity can in FACT SELL! IF the story/film is good. And fyi these are the myths that I am talking about which Hollywood has held.

Hollywood's irrational allergy to 'black' films

https://www.cnn.com/2012/01/14/opinion/martin-red-tails-hollywood/index.html

Bill Maher Whitesplains Hollywood’s Diversity Problem: It’s China’s Fault

http://deadline.com/2016/01/bill-maher-diversity-china-real-time-with-bill-maher-1201688927/

Why White People Don’t Like Black Movies

http://www.indiewire.com/2014/01/why-white-people-dont-like-black-movies-162548/

Diverse movies are a huge business. Why doesn’t Hollywood make more?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/diverse-movies-are-a-huge-business-why-doesnt-hollywood-make-more/2015/12/15/ec002564-9774-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html?utm_term=.5b3d9be48ab6

There are many upon many articles calling out Hollywood's excuses to not push diversity or believe in the spending power of minorities.

Point is... Sites like Comicvine believe any successful non-Straight white male success in any type of media is due to come "politicized" agenda. Sorry I had to go there.

@buttersdaman000: @madcrusher: @king_stranglehold_da_first: I don't think the general audience deny that its a good film. As in, to give a more balanced view of the Black Panther film, its huge success can be attributed to both it being well done and it being politicised. Black Panther was on news and its news discussion/report are often related to race or POC, how are you going to say that the race discussion had no significant influence on any news-watching population on the success of the film?

But yes I agree that comicvine users lately had this annoying alt-right perception that anything that isn't heterosexual white male is automatically the SJWs' doing. It is as if ONLY hetereosexual white males should be featured in films and now some different people are sharing the limelight they start bawling their eyes out "muh white privilege". I have yet to hear any profuse whining from these anti-SJWs that did not expose their deep-seated low key bigotry.

I didn't mean to deny race playing a part. Because otherwise the Black demographic wouldn't have shown up in large numbers. What I was getting at is that Comicvine as a collective has this idea that there is some politicized agenda to hype up ANY majority non-White films whether they are good or bad. While downplaying that it was a good film. The media politicizing it came due to the film being done well. If their theory was right then Wrinkle in Time would be getting the same political praise as Black Panther. Anyways good post.

@king_stranglehold_da_first:

HOLY HOT DAMN! I couldn't have said it better myself. Post #83 was straight fire!

So true what you said here.

Your first sentence is purposely fallacious so I don't think there's any point even starting a discussion against you. I clearly said the people on CV don't think it's the best (MCU) movie but you found it necessary to misrepresent what I said to make me come off worse in your post. I don't think you lack the reading comprehension so that's the only explanation left. Anyways, I stand by what I said. If you don't agree, that's fair enough. Next time, learn to properly argue so that maybe you opponent can see value in engaging you.

Also, i'm black :/ so all that "you guys don't watch black films" doesn't apply to me.....because I do. Your entire post is a fallacy dude.

This is all that's been said. People are too quick to jump and attack post just so they get their "GOTCHA" replies to prove they're in the right.

@king_stranglehold_da_first

Even with your drawn out argument against the bolded apart above, you AGREE with this statement at the beginning of your very next post.

You're not arguing against anything. You just want to be heard.

This also isn't true because A Wrinkle in Time doesn't have the same things going for it that BP did. You can't make a comparison for two things that hardly relate. The only relation between these two movies is that the lead is black. You can't call aWiT a "black" movie in the same way BP is because it simply isn't, in no way shape or form. It doesn't celebrate black people or black culture at all, it's not a super hero movie in the most successful movie universe of all time, and it had absolutely no hype leading up to it's release. If you argue it's a black movie, then so is any Will Smith movie or Denzel Washington movie. Any movie with a black lead would be a black movie. So, you didn't make a point here.

Look at all of the wrong in this thread lmfao glad BP made over a billion it deserved it an then some.

@buttersdaman000:

Your first sentence is purposely fallacious so I don't think there's any point even starting a discussion against you. I clearly said the people on CV don't think it's the best (MCU) movie but you found it necessary to misrepresent what I said to make me come off worse in your post. I don't think you lack the reading comprehension so that's the only explanation left. Anyways, I stand by what I said. If you don't agree, that's fair enough. Next time, learn to properly argue so that maybe you opponent can see value in engaging you.

Uh... I simply said Comicvine does NOT represent the majority of the audience that have seen this film. And how heck is that statement fallacious or misinterpreting what you said??? The next sentences are just you excusing me of being an aggressive irrational baiter without even elaborating on what exactly I did wrong. You're going to stand by what you said? Good. Point is what you "stand by" doesn't represent the majority of people who seen this film or why this film was a success. Your last sentence just seems like a cop out. But whatever.

Also, i'm black :/ so all that "you guys don't watch black films" doesn't apply to me.....because I do. Your entire post is a fallacy dude.

Okay. Thats nice. Your post came off as someone who never watched black films with there being some PC motive behind successful Black films being successful. Next?

Even with your drawn out argument against the bolded apart above, you AGREE with this statement at the beginning of your very next post.

You're not arguing against anything. You just want to be heard.

Nice try. But no. What @godsaveusall said is completely different from what you were saying. You were making it seem that the successful of Black Panther was solely due to the film being politicized with some type of agenda. Black people wanting to see a film that shows them in a good light is not the film being politicized but a demographic relating to that film. Otherwise all films would be "politicized." If Black Panther was a BAD film, with the average person(especially Blacks) saying it was bad and yet the media still hyping it up is an example of a film's success being politicized. Like I said the media hyping up the film only came when Black Panther started breaking records. If the film would've flopped in box office and reviews I highly doubt we would even be seeing any praise from the media.

Edit: If you think Black Panther was an overrated film. Then thats okay. I'm not trying to change your opinion. But again yall need to stop acting like the film did not have the star power, credible director, solid story that allowed it to gain a billion+ world wide.

First off I thought you said my arguments weren't of any value? Anyways...

You are only half right. Ava DuVernay the director of the film was hyping it up and stating how important it was for Black people.

WHY AVA DUVERNAY’S A WRINKLE IN TIME IS SO IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW

https://nerdist.com/wrinkle-in-time-ava-duvernay-set-visit-disney/

'A Wrinkle in Time' isn't a film for critics. It's Ava DuVernay's love letter to black girls.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/wrinkle-time-isn-t-film-critics-it-s-ava-duvernay-ncna855306

Why it was not a majority Black cast like Black Panther. It was marketed as an important Black film to Black girls by the director and the media. And yet it unlike Black Panther flopped even with the hyping. And doesn't the bolded show WHY Black Panther was successful? And not some undercover political motive???

Let me ask you this... Do you think Black people like being shown in a positive or negative light? Do you believe Black people had to be TOLD to turn out in large numbers for this film?

No you said, in direct response to a part of my post,

Many on Comicvine don't think the film was good? Okay. Nice. Comicvine doesn't represent the majority of people in real life sadly.

This, while a small tweak of my original comment,

I mean, c'mon, the vast majority of this website doesn't even think it's the best movie

results in a complete misrepresentation of what I said and paints my entire post in a different light. With your change, my post would come off as me hating on the success of a movie I don't even think is good, whereas with my original post it'd be hard to rationalize me hating on ma movie I do find good. Purposeful or not, you opened your post fallaciously and continued to do so. There's no point in responding to stuff like that.

Okay. Thats nice. Your post came off as someone who never watched black films with there being some PC motive behind successful Black films being successful. Next?

You see, the race of the viewer shouldn't matter in this discussion. You were trying to attack me as a person instead of the argument i'm making. Imagine if I was criticizing WW, and you asked me if I was a woman or not, and then used my response to discredit my argument?? That wouldn't fly.

If I wasn't black, would it invalidate everything I said? Any white guy who approaches it similar has some vendetta against black films? What if that white guy likes other black movies? Is it still a vendetta? This is another fallacious argument you're standing on.

Nah, it isn't. Read my post again, or for the first time if you hadn't already. The context of that post was a response to another user asking if I thought the BOX OFFICE OF $1 BILLION had to do with it's social draw and I replied Yes. From there, I went o to explain why I thought that was so. Just like the other guy mentioned how the movie was on news stations and whatnot, I did the same in so many words. Nothing about my post even slightly indicated that I was trying to discredit BP entirely. I even have a part in my post where I make that clear to avoid argumentative users who like to jump to conclusions, as you see here:

And to clarify, i'm not nitpicking, trying to find any way to diminish the success of the film. That doesn't benefit me in any way.

I don't know where you got lost but it really seems like you didn't even bother to read my post, simply looking to argue instead. It's like you read the word "politicized", felt some type of way, squatted down and jumped. So, i'll make my stance as clear as possible for you:

I don't think BP's success in box office or critical reception is due to it's quality alone. I think the film was politicized, culturally and socially, to the point where it was elevated beyond it's true quality. Do I have a problem with it? No. Do I think it's overrated? Obviously. Do I like the movie? Yes. Do I think it's the best MCU movie? No.

It doesn't matter what the director was trying to do. The viewers decide what a movie means to them. Clearly no one cared about aWiT on the same level as BP because it obviously didn't represent the same things BP did. It's not a good analogy at all.

I don't think you understand what you're arguing against, or maybe what I mean by politicization? Yes, the bolded does explain why BP was successful, but those aspects of them film are why it was politicized in the first place. I don't know where you're getting this undercover "political" movie stuff from.

Lol, are you trying to get me with some "gotcha" questions right now? Hmm do I think an entire group of people like to be represented in a negative light??? HMMMMMMMMMMMMM. Do I think an entire group of people had to be TOLD to watch a movie?? HMMMMMMMMMMM. C'mon man. What are you trying to insinuate here?

@buttersdaman000:

This, while a small tweak of my original comment,

I actually addressed the rest of your post. But it was the "politicized" part that I was mainly addressing.

results in a complete misrepresentation of what I said and paints my entire post in a different light. With your change, my post would come off as me hating on the success of a movie I don't even think is good, whereas with my original post it'd be hard to rationalize me hating on ma movie I do find good. Purposeful or not, you opened your post fallaciously and continued to do so. There's no point in responding to stuff like that.

When did I ever state that YOU hated the film? I merely pointed out that using CV as an example for the entire audience is moot.

You see, the race of the viewer shouldn't matter in this discussion. You were trying to attack me as a person instead of the argument i'm making. Imagine if I was criticizing WW, and you asked me if I was a woman or not, and then used my response to discredit my argument?? That wouldn't fly.

Now when did I bring up your race? I merely brought up the fact that you and others on comicvine sometimes come off naive when it comes to the success of non-white films. Mind you I had this exact same argument with another Black poster.

If I wasn't black, would it invalidate everything I said? Any white guy who approaches it similar has some vendetta against black films? What if that white guy likes other black movies? Is it still a vendetta? This is another fallacious argument you're standing on.

Why do you think its a vendetta? I'm pointing out the naiveness of some of these posts regardless of the posters background. I know many Black people who tried making the same arguments you made.

Nah, it isn't. Read my post again, or for the first time if you hadn't already. The context of that post was a response to another user asking if I thought the BOX OFFICE OF $1 BILLION had to do with it's social draw and I replied Yes. From there, I went o to explain why I thought that was so. Just like the other guy mentioned how the movie was on news stations and whatnot, I did the same in so many words. Nothing about my post even slightly indicated that I was trying to discredit BP entirely. I even have a part in my post where I make that clear to avoid argumentative users who like to jump to conclusions, as you see here:

Then why do you feel the film had to be politicized for it to be successful? That was the main point I was addressing. This was your first response to that poster:

"I never accounted for the movie being so damn politicized"

What did you even mean by this?

I don't know where you got lost but it really seems like you didn't even bother to read my post, simply looking to argue instead. It's like you read the word "politicized", felt some type of way, squatted down and jumped. So, i'll make my stance as clear as possible for you:

Again I was mainly addressing the whole "politicized" argument. And yes I did read. You keep saying you are not discrediting the film's successful and then in the next line say its success was not solely due to "quality." Which one is it?

I don't think BP's success in box office or critical reception is due to it's quality alone. I think the film was politicized, culturally and socially, to the point where it was elevated beyond it's true quality. Do I have a problem with it? No. Do I think it's overrated? Obviously. Do I like the movie? Yes. Do I think it's the best MCU movie? No.

You say that I'm lost. Say you are not trying to discredit the film's success. And then AGAIN say the same statements I was addressing you on. Did Black Panther not have Black star power and a credible director? Did it not have a solid storyline?

More importantly in a recent post I asked you this... "Do you think Black people like being shown in a positive or negative light? Do you believe Black people had to be TOLD to turn out in large numbers for this film?"

The whole "politicized" motive arguably came after the film breaking a lot of records for a Black film which has not been done. Once it had a box office weekend of 200+ million that's when the hype started. Then you had good word of mouth which a lot of people were doing. That wouldn't happen if the film was not that good. Once again you can believe the film is overrated but I am getting sick and tired of there being some political motive for minority films(whether the genre).

You're still missing the point.

You first sentence was fallacious as hell, purposely or not. I don't care that you addressed the rest of my post because all of that was just as fallacious. Now you're saying that you didn't bring up race?? You know the proof is literally on this page right?? Actually, it's whatever dude. The vast majority of debates/arguments on this site are entirely fruitless and this one is no different.

Like, how....

You keep saying you are not discrediting the film's successful and then in the next line say its success was not solely due to "quality." Which one is it?

What is so confusing???? It's like you're trying to misunderstand me. Help me understand; why are these two things mutually exclusive????

I'm over the rest of it because it seems fruitless, like I said before, but i'm honestly flabbergasted you seemingly can't wrap your head around this concept. I'm even more astonished since you basically conceded on this point with the other guy already.

Damn everyones going in^^^^