Ok firstly, Scenario 1 appears to be slightly favouring the Forerunners. Home field advantage aside, the "No reality warping beings" deprives the the Eldar of their gods and the Necrons of the C'tan (possibly the biggest game changers here) yet the Forerunners receive no corresponding gimp in Scenario 2 (yes they don't get the halo rings and all that but in Scenario 1 not only do the other races lose their in-universe advantages (not an issue coz it goes both ways) but then the Eldar and Necrons lose their most powerful units for no other reason (that I can see) than to give the forerunners a little extra advantage)
Also it could be argued that all psychers are reality warping beings since casting warp lightning (for example) at something is no less reality warping than flat out magic when u really think about it, so there goes a great number of the Eldar population. However, I'm sure that was not the OP's intent and do not agree this should happen but just sayin.
Now to touch on the "Spam Halo Rings And Kill Everyone From Inside Our Shield Worlds" tactic people like to use. If the rings didn't kill the flood, I very much doubt it will kill the tyranids. The Eldar I'm not sure about but they generally seem like they would be affected like most everything else. But the Necrons will essentially get off Scott Free.
As to the actual battles, Scenario 1 I see going to the Necrons..... After a relatively long war. Despite losing the C'tan to the rules, the Necrons still have the edge. The Forerunners by rights, should vaporise the Tyranids just like they should have vaporised the flood. But we are all aware of how PIS works. So I see the 'nids out first. They do have the numbers yeah but the opponents they are up against here have reached technological heights that for the most part will nullify any numerical disadvantage they may have to contend with unless said enemy is more or less on the same technological level. In short, the Tyranids are out classed, out gunned and out of their league (which is a shame coz I am actually quite a fan of them in 40k).
In 40K fluff, the Necrons are unique in that they are the only race that generally shitstomp any enemy faction (regardless of who they are) unless said enemy has a massive numbers advantage (I'll add here that while they are defeated sometimes by overwhelming numbers in ground battles, in space this is rarely if ever the case). That includes both the Eldar and the Tyranids. So really it's more of how the Forerunners stack up against the others and whether they could beat any of them. Necrons in particular.
The Forerunners would come a close second in this first scenario because of home field advantage more or less. They would otherwise be deadlocked with the Pre-Fall Eldar if this were neutral ground or defeated by them in the 40k universe for the same reason.
I'm rather rusty on Pre-Fall Eldar but I distinctly remember that they had become so advanced at the height if their power no one even worked. They had technology to do it for them..... And everything else for that matter (after all, when your race controls the galaxy, you have a life span that stretches millennia and you have tech that can and does do literally everything for you, what else is there?). Hence the epic levels of boredom and lack of purpose which led to the assorted debauchery that A Day In The Life Of Your Average Eldar devolved into, culminating in their Fall. And even the Eldar look at Necron tech like its magic.
From what I've read and what I remember, I'd put them on about the same level technologically as the Forerunners or maybe even a little a tiiiiiny bit below them since they both have some border-line-hax to hax shiz to showcase in their own right but I'm not sure if (even at their height) the Eldar ever got so far as to start genetically engineering other races like the Forerunners did. Maybe they weren't interested but I thought that was more in the province of the Old Ones seeing as that's how the Eldar came to be in the first place. Furthermore, Eldar more than any other race utilise the warp in conjunction with technology. Unlike the IoM for example, it's not just a source of psychic power and a way to get around the galaxy. The Eldar utilize it in just about every way they can and I don't know if that may have unintentionally limited the development of the tech itself (eg- we wouldn't of invented cars or buses or trains etc if we could all fly around like superman). If someone could clear that up for me I would appreciate it.
Having said that, on the proviso that they don't get instance killed by the Halo array, I think the same warp energy that "may" have somewhat gimped their technological advancement (or at least slowed it) would be a major issue for the Forerunners since they really have no counter to it.
All in all, I would have Scenario 1 as the Necrons coming out on top because even with their shield worlds and halo rings and other home field advantages they possess, the forerunners aren't quite at the hax level of the Necrons. I mean even the most basic Necron troop (Necron warrior) is made of living, regenerating, ridiculously strong metal armour. Forerunners have battle armour themselves but even the didact's suit of awesomeness cannot match the necron's upper ranks of Necron lord armour. As far as I know, (could be wrong) once u blow a hole in a forerunner and their armour, they don't have the ability to get right back up and keep fighting while repairing themselves. An edge in durability or at the very least with regen, plus the fact that the same basic warrior is armed with a weapon which, by firing a green lightning looking bolt of energy , essentially flays matter on an molecular (atomic?) level by dissolving the bonds between the molecules (atoms?) of the target then magnetically pulling the now individual molecules (atoms?) back towards the weapon. This is considered the most basic weapon in the Necron arsenal and is literally mass produced for their basic infantry. What I'm getting at here is not that the Necrons are way over the hill compared to everyone else but they are essentially one tier above them. The forerunners I know possess tech which can compare with a lot of Necron tech but when it comes to the highest end, Necrons are still in the lead. Things like Tesseract Labyrinths (hand held cube that sucks enemies into a parallel dimension) staves that stop time, ships that eat suns and have literally limitless speed, firepower which is as likely to go strait through your shields as not, guns that deconstruct matter (as your most basic rifle)..... You get what I mean.
The forerunners have the ability to make for example lasers that vaporise u on an atomic level but such a thing would be a specialised weapon reserved for special units or missions and it is that which let's them down the most. And while they have accomplished wonders of technology, the Necrons have reached a stage where even the laws of physics pose no problem any more. I'd put the forerunners at a tech level somewhere in between current Eldar and the Old Ones. Not sure how Pre-Fall Eldar would fit but as I said earlier, probably ever so slightly below the Forerunners. Followed then of course by the Tyranids last and that is how I think the battle would go in scenario 1:
Necrons>Forerunners>Pre-Fall Eldar>Tyranids.
Now scenario 2 is almost exactly the same as Scenario 1 accept that the in-universe advantages afforded the forerunners have been replaced with advantages for the others like the Webway for instance. This, along with the introduction of the Eldar pantheon and the C'tan for the Necrons means that now the Forerunners will drop to third as the Pre-Fall Eldar become too much for them to handle in the 40kverse. Some end of Scenario 2:
Necrons>Pre-Fall Eldar>Forerunners>Tyranids
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