Right, allow me to preface this by saying that my knowledge on Halo lore/canon is rather limited so keep that in mind.
It seems to me that the Elites(I don't know their Covenant name so...) and the Jem'Hadar would have a rather similar fighting ethic, fighting for religious reasons and such. The Grunts would get curbstomped, hands down. The Ones with the plasma goo cannon things attached to their arms would basically annihilate everything but a Changeling.
In terms of ground weaponry: The Jem'Hadar and their Polaron rifles would most likely win, simply because of their bleed effect. The Covenant plasma weaponry is hideously outdated by Star Trek terms (They had just gotten past plasma weaponry in Enterprise if my memory is accurate) but it would still be effective against the Jem'Hadar. The Jem'Hadar's spear-like weapon can't even come close in terms of killing power with the Gravity Hammer or the Plasma Sword so I'd give it to the Covenant on that account.
Taking in to account the Jem'Hadar's dependence on Ketracel White, if the Covenant were to somehow destroy or confiscate the Dominion's supply of Ketracel then the fight would go insanely towards the Covenant.
Ship based weaponry comparison; This is the biggest place where my knowledge of Halo canon is limited so if anyone else wants to correct me, by all means, do so.
The Dominion use Polaron Beams/Disruptors and Quantum Torpedoes. The Covenant use (I think) Plasma based weaponry. In the Trek universe the only form of plasma weaponry still around is the Romulan Plasma Torpedo which is pretty powerful, on par with a Quantum torpedo; so if the Covenant's plasma weaponry is anything like that, the Covenant have a fighting chance. The Dominion do use kamikaze tactics but as I do not know the output of the Covenant's shields or if they're even like the Star Trek deflector shields, I can't really compare these.
Planetary Devastation: The Covenant does possess the ability to cover a planet in glass, this is no small feat, but it is a time consuming process leaving the ship doing the glassing open to attack. The Dominion possess Torpedoes specifically designed to level cities, not as devastating as covering a planet in glass but it's a much more efficient alternative.
I'd have to let this be a tie or the Dominion absorbs the Covenant and annihilates Earth.
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